645 FXUS64 KOUN 162139 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 439 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Much cooler, and very dry air arrives tomorrow. Also, elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northern and east-central Oklahoma... Rain chances linger over southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening as the cold front continues its slow progression south over Texas with chances of light rain continuing into Monday morning across portions of western north Texas. Northerly winds continue as the strong surface high centered over Canada shifts southward. As a reinforcing cold front moves through tomorrow, dewpoint temperatures fall into the teens across northern Oklahoma and cloud cover diminishes from north to south. High temperatures range from the upper 50's (Kay County) to the mid-60's (western north Texas). Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Freeze Watches have been issued for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with hard freezes possible across northeastern parts of the CWA on Wednesday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible on Tuesday and Friday... The 1030MB surface high continues to move southward out of Canada, and reaches the central plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the strong low-level CAA, freezing temperatures are expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning, possibly into parts of central Oklahoma. A Freeze Watch has been issued for this area for Tuesday morning for northern and east-central Oklahoma. Tuesday will be sunny and chilly with highs in the mid 50's across much of the FA. By early Wednesday morning, the high pressure center shifts over our northern counties and dewpoints drop into the low teens with light winds. Freezing temperatures are possible across much of Oklahoma and into north Texas, and a hard freeze with lows in the mid 20's possible over northeastern Oklahoma. Frost is not a concern given the large dewpoint depressions. With RH values dropping to 15 to 20 percent on Tuesday afternoon, elevated fire risk is possible across parts of northern and east-central Oklahoma. High pressure then shifts southeastward and winds swing to the southwest on Wednesday. Temperatures rebound quickly with an appreciable diurnal temperature difference (30-40 deg) on Wednesday. A warming trend continues into next weekend and the 80s return by Friday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Light rainfall will continue from I-40 and southward through most of the afternoon. MVFR cigs over SPS should remain present until early this evening. Winds will vary little throughout the forecast. Skies will slowly begin to clear late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 45 60 36 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 47 63 37 59 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 52 65 40 60 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 38 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 37 60 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 52 65 38 58 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for OKZ004>013-015-017>020-024>026-029>032. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for OKZ004>013-015>020-022>032-035-038>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...03