105 
FXUS63 KABR 162017
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Currently, a broken but ever diminishing blanket of mid-clouds 
persists east of the James Valley, and scattered cirrus continue 
streaming south across the rest of the CWA. How cloud cover evolves 
through the evening and overnight may influence how cold 
temperatures get. The HREF ensemble mean shows around 40 to 60 
percent low cloud cover across much of central SD. The most 
anomalously cold air aloft moves into the area on Monday and Monday 
night, with 850mb temps down to the 0.5th percentile across much of 
MN and to the 2.5th to 1st percentile across the eastern CWA from 
18z Mon to 06z Tue (NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean). With sfc high 
pressure positioned across the area, radiational cooling should be 
maximized as well, with light winds and little to no clouds. 
Therefore, temperatures may drop into the single digits for some 
with teens most likely elsewhere which is well below normal. 

Despite the colder air, grassland fire danger should remain elevated 
on Monday across the eastern CWA due to 1.) breezy northerly winds 
with gusts generally in the 20 to 30 mph range and 2.) very dry air. 
In fact, PW may be down to 0.15" across west central MN Monday 
afternoon, which is the NAEFS and ECMWF mean's 0.5th percentile for 
this time of year. Minimum afternoon RH values should be in the 25 
to 30 percent range for much of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Tuesday morning will be starting off cold as surface high pressure 
will be in place. Single digits and teens will likely be common 
across the area, especially the eastern CWA. This high remains in 
the area through the day, keeping light winds and cool temperatures 
in place. 

The highlight of the period and most opportunity for forecast 
adjustment lies in the Wed-Thurs time period when we get warmer air 
aloft spreading over the region with decent mixing. Given the dry 
conditions/soils and warming aloft/good mixing, feel high 
temperatures can be adjusted more towards higher percentile values, 
for Wed and Thurs especially, and maybe even through much of the 
period.

Models aren't showing much at all in the way of precipitation during 
the extended, so a dry forecast remains through much of period. Fire 
weather will likely dominate the talks beginning mid-week as we see 
our warm up, especially during periods of higher winds and low RH.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the period at all terminals. 


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Lueck