748 FXUS64 KJAN 162007 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 307 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Tonight and Tomorrow: A strong amplified upper-level trough will slowly swing across the eastern half of the CONUS starting today. As this trough pushes through, a cold front will form and begin to approach the ArkLaMiss region tonight. This boundary will bring forth the opportunity for rain chances, however with how dry we've been there is a possibility that we may not receive any measurable precipitation. Shall enough moisture arise from the front, showers will be limited to areas west of the Mississippi River. By Monday the front will begin to sag south across the region bringing chances for light showers mainly south of I-20 but again, to account for how dry we've been some areas may receive little to no rain at all. Will continue with at least 15-20% chance of PoPs in the forecast. Winds will be a bit gusty Monday thanks to the tight pressure gradient from the previously mentioned front. Because of this, temperatures will return back to near normal values with some places across the north below normal. Expect highs to range from the upper 60s in the north, to low 70s across central areas, and upper 70s in the far south. Dense fog was noted across the Pine Belt region early this morning and models are picking up on that possibly being the case tomorrow morning as well. Will add a limited threat in the HWO for fog across these areas. Upgrades or an advisory may be needed on later forecasts depending on the current conditions. /JNE/ Tuesday through Sunday: The main concerns through the rest of the week will be dry weather and fire danger conditions behind this cold front , as well as likely frost and the first freeze of the season for some places during midweek. Between an upper-level ridge centered over the Northern Rockies and an anomalously deep closed low centered over the Great Lakes region,meridional flow will steer a cold, dry polar air mass south from the Canadian prairies into the central and southern CONUS. Cold air advection behind the front will continue into Wednesday, scouring out the humidity as a 1025mb surface high reaches the central Gulf Coast with PWATS less than 0.2 inches expected and dew points into the teens or lower possible. This will result in critically low relative humidity on Tuesday with winds remaining around 15 mph in the wake of the front. Elevated to Critical fire danger conditions are expected, and a Significant threat may be needed for parts of the forecast area if winds look to be just a little stronger. For now will keep the threat at Elevated. Dry but less breezy conditions will continue into Wednesday. As the core of the high reaches the ArkLaTex region Tuesday evening, and as winds begin to settle down in the region, temperatures should have a decent chance to radiate down to near or below freezing (32 degrees Fahrenheit) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Even if surface moisture isn't quite ideal, it is likely for actual air temperatures to drop below freezing most areas but especially along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor that night. Some locations in our typically chilly spots of the northeast MS hills, could even drop below 28 degrees for an agricultural "killing freeze" if winds are calm enough and cold air settles in the valleys in those areas. NBM guidance suggest warmer temperatures Wednesday night, but the core of the surface high should be directly over the region with ideal radiational cooling potential, so temperatures were nudged toward MOS guidance and bias corrected guidance with another night of possible frost and freeze. With impacts expected about 3 weeks ahead of the typical first freeze date, an "elevated" threat area for frost and freeze has been added to the HWO text and graphics. Later in the week, the pattern should break down with a trough setting up over the western CONUS and warm air advection returning to our region with developing southerly low-level flow. Some models hint at a little chance for rain by next Sunday, but dry conditions will probably slow the arrival of rain chances. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Mainly VFR conditions through the period. LIFR conditions are expected again at sites PIB and HBG early tomorrow morning. Patchy to dense FG will be possible. LIFR conditions should lift by 14Z and VFR will prevail. Winds will be out of the north and fairly light today and through the night but tomorrow afternoon, gusts up to 20kts will be possible at most sites. /JNE/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 61 72 42 / 0 10 20 0 Meridian 85 61 73 41 / 0 10 20 0 Vicksburg 85 61 73 42 / 0 10 20 0 Hattiesburg 87 63 78 46 / 0 10 10 0 Natchez 86 62 73 45 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 83 58 70 39 / 10 20 10 0 Greenwood 84 58 69 37 / 10 10 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JNE/NF/JNE