074 FXUS61 KILN 162002 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 402 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of a cold front that is crossing the region today, west winds will usher in a significantly colder airmass for the beginning of the work week. A cutoff low pressure system over Lake Huron will keep a deep cold pool over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday evening. After the low moves east and then retrogrades to the north, temperatures will begin to make a rebound for the latter part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Based on current radar depiction, the isolated shower from high-based cu over Mason County KY does not look to work into an area that will enhance it and should remain just a passing sprinkle for Lewis County and/or southern Scioto County. That being said and looking at a large consensus of models shunting any deeper moisture to the southeast, removed any rain chances for the remainder of the day in the CWA. Cloud cover will be pushed south as the cold front approaches, but mid and higher clouds will be found as the l/w trough deepens and pushes in colder air tonight. Wind will remain up overnight in the 5-12 mph range and increase to 10-15 mph at or slightly before daybreak. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s in the west, near 40 in the east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cloud cover will increase sharply tomorrow morning, especially over the northern CWA where the cold pool is strongest. A mix of clouds and sun will occur in the southern half of the CWA, but don't expect any sun peeking through to warm up anything. A strong west wind 15-20 mph will keep cold air pouring in through the day. High temperatures about 20 degrees colder than today will range from the mid 40s in the northwest to near 50 degrees in the southeast. As the cold pool deepens with the southward push of the upper low, some precipitation is possible, particularly in the evening. Given the deep nature of the cold air, rain may mix with some snow at times along and north of the I-70 corridor. Wind overnight will be even stronger than tonight, 15-20 mph and ushering in sub-freezing temperatures for much of the area, more notably in the southeast and south. Cloud cover will be more prevalent in the north, with slightly higher temperatures found here along the I-70 corridor and northward. Kept the freeze watch in place for this area. To the south, sub-freezing temperatures will advect in near or even before midnight, and last through the night into the morning. With this forecast, a freeze warning seemed prudent and has been issued for the same timing as the watch was out earlier. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalously low geopotential heights surrounding an upper low will dictate weather for the first part of the period. For Tuesday, in addition to brisk winds areawide, showers may occur across the northern part of the FA in the moist circulation around the low. Snow could mix in Tuesday morning. As the low weakens and shifts northeast, high pressure and a dry weather pattern is forecast for Wednesday through Sunday. Cold temperatures can be expected at the start of the long term, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and lows Tuesday night in the 20s and 30s, with frost/freeze likely. A gradual transition to warmer readings is then forecast in a southwest flow developing around the high, with highs rising to the 50s by Thursday, before reaching the lower 70s next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Few to sct high based fair wx cu this afternoon will clear up before sunset and higher cloud cover will develop shortly thereafter as the upper level trough digs deeper into the Ohio Valley from the Great Lakes region. A few gusts 16-20kt are possible this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Wind tonight will calm down but remain westerly around 6-8kt through the night, then pick up to a good 14-16kt sustained during the day with gusty 20-25kt expected in the afternoon. NAM is showing a potential for gusty winds through the overnight, and given the rapid drop in temperatures through a deeper layer this remains a possibility that will need to be considered to be incorporated in future forecasts. Did not have strong overnight winds and/or gusts given MOS guidance that was generally on the lighter side with no gusts suggested. High clouds will move east in the morning as a noted area of dry air works in from the north. Some lower level moisture will interact with the cold air intrusion and create cu tomorrow morning, likely becoming broken for DAY and ILN near the MVFR/VFR threshold and a slight bit later and into the VFR category for CMH/LCK by late morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ042-060>064-070>074-077>082-088. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-043>046-051>056-065. KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks/AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Franks