551 FXUS64 KEWX 161959 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 259 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Mesoanalysis/Synopsis: A busy afternoon surface map highlights what should be an active short term forecast period. Connected to last night's storms over the ArkLaTex, an outflow boundary was analyzed along a line extending from San Angelo to Lampasas to Temple. The feature has been able to withstand the test of surface heating thanks to remnant cloud debris, shower activity, and attendant cold pool preservation to its north. Stark temperature contrast is thus evident across the boundary, as evidenced by the 85 versus 69 degree 18Z surface temps observed at Georgetown and Waco respectively. The well-advertised cold front lags to the north of the decaying cold pool and outflow boundary, currently evident from Corsicana west to just north of San Angelo. Isolated showers and storms have been observed across Lavaca and DeWitt Counties along the sea breeze. Above the surface, an upper level low continues to rotate over the AZ-NM border vicinity. An accompanying speed max accompanies the low, and is beginning to emerge into West Texas from Chihuahua and Sonora. This Afternoon: Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the far southeastern CWA along the sea breeze through sunset. Additional spotty activity is possible across portions of the far northeast in the vicinity of the outflow boundary discussed above. Most areas will remain dry through the dinner hour. Expect highs ranging from the low to mid 80s in the Rio Grande Plains to the low 90s across the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor. Tonight: The best precipitation chances of the short term continue to reside in this time period. We continue to anticipate widespread shower and thunderstorm development over the Serranias del Burro Mountains and lower Trans-Pecos later this evening as the upper level low and its attendant speed max begin to overspread the region and interact with the advancing cold front. Activity should reach the Rio Grande by Midnight. While disagreement still exists amongst individual CAM solutions, there is broad consensus that storms will begin to organize as bulk shear values in the 40-50 knot range settle in overhead. Most solutions show some sort of mesoscale convective system developing during the predawn hours, tracking southeast through the Winter Garden into moisture and instability pooling along the nocturnal low level jet axis in place across the region. Given the high (1.50-2 inch) precipitable water values in place ahead of the storms, this activity would be capable of producing heavy rainfall along its track. Precise numbers remain difficult to pin down, though most guidance indicates totals ranging from one to two inches with isolated four inch pockets possible over the Winter Garden and Rio Grande Plains. Flooding concerns are overall low given the ongoing drought and progressive forward motions of storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH are also possible. SPC continues a marginal risk in its day 1 convective outlook in light of this potential. Expect activity to be lighter and more scattered outside of the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden. Tomorrow: Convection alluded to above will likely be ongoing across the far southwest through the first part of the morning before moving into Brush Country. Overrunning showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon hours, though considerable uncertainty regarding coverage in the wake of the predawn activity remains. Have help precip chances in the grids through sunset, though widespread rainfall is not expected through the afternoon hours. Tomorrow Night: Drying should start to commence behind the front, helping to start shut down precip chances. Can't entirely rule out an isolated, overrunning shower through daybreak Tuesday, but overall coverage should be low with dry air advection in progress. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Some lingering showers are possible Tuesday morning for areas generally south of a Del Rio to Pleasanton line. Chances for showers are low and if models trend faster with the drying behind the front, rain chances may need to be removed for Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a dry forecast is in store across the remainder of south central Texas. Gusty northeast winds along with a decrease in cloud cover can be expected behind the cold front for Tuesday afternoon as surface high pressure remains over the region. Highs will generally be in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Winds should diminish quickly around sunset and with clear skies, light winds and dry air in place we will see excellent radiational cooling. This will drop overnight lows into the mid 30s to mid 40s across south central Texas. The coolest readings will be across the Hill Country and nearby low-lying areas along the I-35 corridor. Surface high pressure weakens and moves east on Wednesday as temperatures slowly begin to rebound with highs expected to warm back into the mid 60s to lower 70s. A surface low developing just north of the region will bring southerly winds back to most areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overnight lows will continue to remain below normal, but should manage to warm back into the 40s for most areas. For the remainder of the forecast period (Friday through Sunday), the flow aloft over the central and high plains transitions from northwest to southwest and increases. This will lead to strong surface cyclogenesis across the central U.S. plains states. For our area, this will lead to occasionally gusty south winds and a warming trend. At this time, no precipitation is expected through the above mentioned period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 With the exception of DRT, VFR conditions have returned at all local terminals. MVFR cigs and occasional visibility reductions continue at DRT. Expect a period of VFR to return to all fields through the early evening, prior to the pattern turning more active as a front and upper disturbance begin to influence the region's weather. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from tonight through early tomorrow morning. Greatest chances will be during the predawn hours, when prevailing TSRA/-TSRA has been inserted into all forecasts. Said activity should occur concurrently with widespread cig reductions. A window of IFR appears possible at both AUS and DRT after 09Z, which has been accounted for in the 18Z package. Cigs at/near FL009 will continue through the remainder of the period at DRT, though some improvements to MVFR are expected during the mid morning hours Monday at AUS. Have maintained an MVFR forecast at SAT and SSF, where confidence in IFR reductions is lower. Precip chances should gradually taper moving through Monday afternoon, with cig improvements to VFR looking likely at AUS and SAT by mid-late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 68 52 67 / 50 50 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 69 50 68 / 50 40 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 70 54 70 / 40 40 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 60 65 49 66 / 60 50 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 71 54 65 / 80 70 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 66 48 66 / 60 50 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 69 71 53 69 / 50 60 40 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 70 51 69 / 50 40 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 74 54 69 / 40 40 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 71 54 68 / 40 50 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 70 73 58 70 / 40 50 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Quigley Long-Term...Platt Aviation...Quigley