022 FXUS64 KSHV 161958 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 258 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The cold front is draped along our I-30 corridor now with lower dew points in the low 60s for an average. The outflow boundary from this morning brought light N winds into play, making for a cooler day with good cloud coverage and still some rain falling in E TX. Our 88D Doppler radar is showing most of this coverage shifting into deep E TX for the remainder of the afternoon. To note we have some new development WSW of Tyler at this time. Additional showers and isolated thunder will persist this evening and overnight with the cold front sliding southward. The upper low is over AZ/NM and is on the move E now with shearing expected as the drier air pours out of Canada. We are practically zonal aloft right now W to E, but the low will buckle the flow and allow for this additional activity through the night. Overnight lows will be as cool as upper 40s far north to lower 60s along our southern tier of Co/Pa as skies will see some clearing north while the rain clouds scour early on Monday south of I-20 and out of our area during the afternoon hours. Sunshine and a brisk north wind will make for highs in the low to mid 70s on our Monday. Overnight will take quite a dip with much much drier air pouring south all day and into Tuesday. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A very deep, cold core closed low will shift E into the Ern Great Lakes region Tuesday, with a trailing trough set to quickly dive S into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley during the afternoon and evening, reinforcing much colder air S into the region. Canadian sfc ridging will begin to dive S into the Srn Plains Tuesday, with the post-frontal pressure gradient maintaining breezy and at times, gusty N winds across the area with much below normal temps expected as readings struggle to reach the lower to mid 60s. The progs have also trended much drier with the post-frontal air mass Tuesday, with the MET/MAVMOS plunging dewpoints into the teens and 20s by afternoon, and the NBM not far behind in the lower to mid 20s. This should result in Min RH's falling to 15-20% areawide, and given the tight pressure gradient in place, generate elevated fire weather conditions over much if not all of the area since rainfall amounts today have been fairly light over all but areas NW of the I-30 corridor of NE TX, SE OK, and adjacent SW AR. With the sfc ridging settling into Cntrl/Ern OK and N TX Tuesday night, good radiational cooling is expected under a generally clear sky and thus, setting the stage for the coldest temps so far this Fall season. In fact, dewpoints are progged to remain well in the 20s Tuesday night, but allow temps to fall to near if not below freezing over much of the CWA. Have undercut the NBM by a few degrees given this setup, with a Freeze Warning needed for much if not all of the region Tuesday night. In fact, should these freezing temps verify, this would mark either the earliest freeze or tied for the earliest freeze on record for many locales across E TX/N LA along/S of I-20. Despite the strong insolation and the relaxed pressure gradient Wednesday with the ridging overhead, much below normal max temps will continue with very dry RH's (below 20%) expected, although light winds will limit any spread of wildfires. Another cold night is expected Wednesday night as the sfc ridge axis begins to shift E of the area over the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast region, but did trend a few degrees below guidance with freezing temps again a good bet over portions of Srn AR/N LA. A warming trend will commence Thursday as SSW low level winds return, and the flow aloft gradually begins to transition to Wrly with the departure of the Ern CONUS closed low. There's quite a spread in the overall synoptic pattern by the end of the week into next weekend, with the GFS/Canadian suggesting a gradual transition to SW flow aloft by the mid and latter half of next weekend ahead of a digging trough/closed low over the Desert SW, while the ECMWF maintains a less amplified pattern consistent of flat ridging over the Srn Plains before a gradual transition late in the weekend from the Pac NW into the Great Basin/Cntrl and Srn Rockies. Given this variability, confidence remains too low to introduce pops back into the forecast attm, with agreement with the NBM in maintaining a dry forecast. However, a return to near to above normal temps is expected with the return SSWrly low level flow by next weekend, with the return to more humid conditions as well. /15/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 For the ArkLaTex terminals, an area of convection is dropping SE over E TX and is stretched with precipitating mid and high clouds into NW LA. Models sink this area toward Toledo Bend by late day as a cold front slides into the area. Already NE winds thanks to an outflow boundary early w/ N/NW overnight into Sunday driving out the limited moisture behind this fropa. The elevated frontal (5kft-10kft) may squeeze out some more light rain overnight with skies clearing from N to S during our Sunday w/ N/NE 5-15KT. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 59 75 44 63 / 50 20 0 0 MLU 60 74 42 60 / 20 10 0 0 DEQ 49 68 35 60 / 20 0 0 0 TXK 56 70 39 60 / 30 10 0 0 ELD 53 69 38 57 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 57 72 43 64 / 50 40 0 0 GGG 58 73 42 63 / 50 30 0 0 LFK 63 75 45 66 / 50 40 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...24