271 
FXUS65 KPIH 161949
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
149 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night.
Locally breezy winds associated with yesterday's frontal passage 
will continue to taper off throughout the evening, with light winds 
forecast for the next several days.  A blocking pattern will keep 
high pressure in control throughout the short-term period.  Mostly 
clear skies will mean unseasonably warm daytime highs and around 
normal overnight lows.  High temperatures tomorrow will increase by 
a few degrees compared to today. Cropp

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
We will see the blocking pattern start to breakdown midweek, with
much bigger changes coming by next weekend. The GFS is by far the
quickest to breakdown the pattern on Thursday. The ECMWF is not 
as quick, which fits about 30% of the cluster forecasts...with the
majority of the clusters holding on to some semblance of a ridge.
That trend continues into Friday. The Blend of Models has a slow 
cooling trend both days with winds on the increase, but remaining 
dry. All of the models and most of the clusters (there is still 
10% showing the ridge never really breaking down) bring a deep 
trough into Idaho over the weekend. The GFS is by far deeper and 
colder (higher potential for rain and snow at lower elevations) 
than the ECMWF. Of the clusters favoring a trough/low, only around
40% though have something close to either the GFS and ECMWF. The 
Blend of Models follows suit with a much better chance of 
precipitation, however it also follows a much colder pattern like 
the GFS. We will keep with the Blend of Models forecast for now as
probability forecasts show much of central and eastern Idaho 
seeing a 60% chance or higher of dropping below freezing Sunday 
morning...including lower valleys. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...VFR weather expected through midweek with most areas 
seeing winds under 10kts, even where we seeing stronger 
terrain/downvalley effects. Keyes


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Locally breezy winds associated with yesterday's
frontal passage will continue to taper off throughout the 
evening, with light winds forecast for the next several days. A 
blocking pattern will keep high pressure in control through late 
week, with dry conditions and poor humidity recovery. Minimum 
humidity values will reach into the low to mid teens throughout 
much of the week. Mostly clear skies will mean unseasonably warm 
daytime temperatures, with a slight warming trend through mid-
week, and around normal overnight lows. A pattern change will 
arrive late week, as the ridge breaks down Thursday and the next 
system out of the northwest brings breezy winds, cooler 
temperatures, and rain and snow chances for the weekend timeframe.
Cropp/Keyes


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$