768 FXUS62 KILM 161944 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 344 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to produce dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night. Colder high pressure is then expected Tuesday into late week with frost possible well inland each morning through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... South to southwesterly flow keeps the area mild tonight with forecast soundings showing that moistening will tend to be confined to the upper levels. We once again warm up tomorrow making the forecast a bit uncertain as what was looking like a high shear/low CAPE setup may actually have some CAPE to work with after all, though likely not to the extent forecast by WRF soundings (MUCAPE of 2000 J/Kg at 00Z). Even with meager instability there still appears to be the chance for isolated damaging winds as SHERB values are just shy of 1.0 across most of the area at 00Z. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Forecast confidence: Moderate to high Surface high pressure will slowly build into the area while troughing persists aloft. Main forecast challenge will be temperatures and frost potential. Confidence is high that temperatures will be well below normal through the period. In fact, lows should be in the mid to upper 30s inland Tuesday and Wednesday nights with some frost possible, especially Wednesday night when the high pressure is closer and winds will be lighter. There is even a very low, but non-zero, risk for freezing temperatures far inland Tuesday/Wednesday nights in the normally colder outlying areas, with the best chance on Wednesday night when more favorable radiational cooling conditions should occur. Will also have to keep an eye on the fire weather situation as conditions dry out Tuesday with lingering breezes. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast confidence: Moderate to high Surface high pressure should prevail into at least late week with more uncertainty over the weekend. Upper troughing could linger a bit longer over the region leading to some surface coastal troughing and/or low pressure which would bring more unsettled weather to the area. Temperatures will moderate through the period getting back to normal Saturday. There is a low concern for some frost again well inland Thursday night. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. SW flow to moisten the column but mainly just in the upper levels. Maintained the low-level wind shear for a few hours at end of TAF period for inland terminals, with winds around 35kts at 2000 ft though some guidance backing off. Precipitation now looks slower and generally later than the TAF period. Extended Outlook...Low to moderate confidence in some restrictions late Monday into early Tuesday due to possible low clouds, showers and/or storms. High confidence in VFR conditions Tuesday through Friday as high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front. && .MARINE... Through Monday night... SW winds will increase tonight into Monday as a cold front approaches. A few gusts to advisory levels appear possible. Seas build as well but will similarly stay narrowly below thresholds. A sharp turn to the NW is forecast for the end of the period steepening wave faces as the overall dominant height lowers. Tuesday through Friday: Forecast confidence this period is moderate to high. Breezy conditions are expected into Wednesday given the cold advection but Small Craft Advisories are not anticipated. Lowering winds/seas then expected thereafter through Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...MBB/RJB MARINE...MBB/RJB