775 FXUS63 KGLD 161923 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Midwest. A closed low was present over the Desert Southwest. Satellite imagery showed mid level clouds moving south across the Plains behind the closed low. Observations show cooler air over the Northern Plains wrapping around the closed low. Over the Southern Plains a large area of cloud cover was present where the moisture advection was converging with the upper level trough. Tonight a surface high pressure will move through Central Kansas from the north. Accompanying the high pressure will be a reinforcing round of cooler air from the north, along with lower dew points. The environment will be set up well for radiational cooling as the high pressure moves in. Current low forecast is at the cool end of the data spectrum, but may not be cool enough for the northeast part of the forecast area. Could see lows fall to the upper teens in low lying areas given the low dew points moving in. Over all cooled lows a couple degrees from the prior forecast. With this in mind the current freeze warning should verify for most if not all of the forecast area. The west half of the forecast area may not become cold enough to have a killing freeze due to the higher dew points there. Monday highs should be slightly cooler than today due to cooler air with the surface high slowly sliding eastward. Winds will continue to be light, although there could be some breezy winds over Norton and Graham counties during the afternoon. Monday night the surface high to the east retrogrades back into the forecast area as the upper level ridge shifts the flow to the north instead of northwest. The low dew points will still be over the forecast area, leading to a favorable setup for radiational cooling to lower temperatures more than what most guidance is indicating. Current forecast has lows around 20 for the northeast part of the forecast area. This may not be cool enough given the dew points of 10 degrees or so. Any locations which reach the teens tonight will certainly cool to that again. Regarding the frost, will not issue a freeze watch at this time. Prefer to see which counties end the growing season before issuing another watch or warning for freezing temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Morning through Sunday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 To start the extended period, upper level northerly flow will be present as ridge resides over the western CONUS a large low over the eastern CONUS. This will lead to dry conditions for the area for the remaining work week. Elevated to perhaps localized near critical fire conditions look to be a concern Wednesday through Friday with perhaps the relative best day on Wednesday as the pressure gradient gets pinched over the High Plains by the two features; forecast soundings indicate wind gusts of 20-25 mph along and west of Highway 27 if diurnal mixing can be fully realized. High temperatures look to remain above normal with the exception being Tuesday as effects from the cold/dry airmass continues to linger across the area with high temperatures in the mid 50s to 60s; with highs in the 70s to low 80s through the start of the weekend. Low temperatures near to below freezing can be expected again Wednesday morning with clear skies and light wind supporting radiational cooling; have took out the frost wording on Wednesday morning as a widespread end of the growing season freeze is expected before this (tonight and Tuesday morning). GEFS ensembles indicate a potential pattern change late next weekend with another strong cold front moving through the area and a surface low developing across the Rockies. Currently based on the placement of the developing low (northern Colorado/Utah) and a northeastward progression, this may be more of a windy pattern with very low chance of any precipitation. Local dust research does indicate the potential for perhaps some blowing dust over SE portions of the area ahead of the front based on the 6Z GFS run. This is low confidence at this point as the pattern change is still a week out, but will continue to be monitored in upcoming forecasts. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light to breezy winds will continue through the afternoon, then become light this evening. A surface high will move through, causing the winds at both sites to become variable around 9z. Behind the surface high winds will become northwest. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...JTL