224 FXUS61 KRLX 161903 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/thunderstorms continue spreading across the south this afternoon. Cold front tonight ushers in the coldest air of the season so far for the early portion of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are currently moving through the southern portion of the CWA this afternoon as moisture is pulled into the area ahead of a cold front. With sufficient moisture and 40+ kts of effective shear, locally damaging wind gusts could be possible within a stronger storm or two; therefore, portions of southeast WV and southwest VA have been outlined in a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. Most shower and storm activity is expected to remain in the southern half of the CWA through the evening, with the severe threat diminishing for tonight. Precipitation then gradually recedes to the east as the front crosses through during the overnight hours. Upper troughing is expected to dig deeper into the eastern US for the beginning of the work week. Cloud cover is expected to persist into the afternoon; however, while a few showers may be possible into Monday morning, drier air at the surface should keep the majority of the area dry during the day. Breezy conditions are also likely from mid morning through the afternoon due to a tight pressure gradient over the CWA. After a mild day today, temperatures are expected to be around normal overnight with lows ranging from upper 30s to 40s. Temperatures then fall below normal as cold air advection sets in behind the front. This should keep high temperatures in the 40s to 50s across the area on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Brief high pressure ridging will allow for some dry but cloudy weather Monday night, before a reinforcing cold front pushes into the area Tuesday. Regardless, Tuesday will be a raw day, with breezy conditions and while highs are in the 40s at lower elevations and 30s in the mountains. Wind chills will be a bit cooler than that. Moisture looks to be a bit limited with this feature, but especially with a bit of a Great Lakes component to the flow, at least some showers in the mountains and across the northern tier of the CWA seems possible. Snow is likely at least in the mountains, especially Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and some flakes could be seen at lower elevations overnight. The Freeze Watch for Monday night will be maintained for now, and will likely be upgraded to at least an area wide frost advisory, with a number of counties looking probable for a Freeze Warning. Clouds and breezes should keep much of the area above freezing Tuesday night, though the mountains will drop below freezing. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Some snow showers likely linger in the mountains Wednesday morning, but the trough will shift away and surface high pressure builds over the Southern Appalachians for much of the latter half of the week. This will direct generally drier weather into the area, with a gradual warming trend into next weekend. Lower elevation highs from the mid-40s to low 50s on Wednesday will bump into the 60s by Friday and potentially into the lower 70s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Outside of showers and storms primarily in the southern portion of the area, VFR is expected to continue through the day. However, temporary reductions to MVFR/IFR visibility and some lowered ceilings are expected where showers/storms occur. Precipitation continues near EKN/BKW/CKB/CRW overnight, then gradually shifts east out of the area as a cold front crosses through. While SCT to BKN cloud cover is expected to persist through the end of the TAF period, ceilings should lift back to VFR Monday morning. Southwest winds generally remain around 10 kts or less today, though a few stronger gusts may be possible within storms. Winds remain light overnight, then strengthen to around 8-14 kts on Monday, with 15-25 kt gusts from mid-morning through the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight conditions may be worse than forecast within showers/storms today. Extent and duration of MVFR conditions overnight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in snow showers in the higher mountainous terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031-033-034. OH...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...JLB