245 FXUS61 KCLE 161840 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 240 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight as low pressure develops over the Lake Huron region. This low pressure system will deepen over eastern Ontario on Monday and remain over the region through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... No big changes to the forecast this morning. Temperatures have recovered into the 40s and 50s and the frost threat has ended. Some areas of clouds remain in the area this AM. They will clear by this afternoon and give a decent window of sunny conditions. Previous Discussion... 5H jet moving through the upper level trough is assisting with the development of cloud cover across the region. Cant completely rule out a passing sprinkle across the region. The best chances of this occurring are from Marion to Youngstown. These clouds are messing with temperatures and keeping them warmer than anticipated across portions of the frost advisory. Will leave it up for now but may cancel early if temperatures continue to warm up. In any event there still should be patchy/areas of frost across the OH portion of the advisory. A decent frost should still occur across NW PA. Skies then clear in the wake of this jet energy as another cold front moves across the area through the afternoon. Highs today should warm into the 60's for most locations. The next ripple of jet energy arrives tonight with some showers developing across NE OH into NW PA. The greatest coverage should be out over the lake. It will still be cool across the region tonight but with increased cloud cover and winds remaining above 8 mph we shouldn't have to deal with any widespread frost. Lows tonight on the mid/upper 30's. Warmer along the lakeshore with 40's common from Cleveland to Ripley. Upper level low pressure digs into the central Great Lakes Monday. Showers increase in coverage over the lake first and attempt to move a bit more onto the north shore of Ohio during the afternoon. heaviest of the rain should stay out over the lake with a significant band of lake enhanced rainfall anticipated. Instability over the lake looks impressive so there will be thunder over the water. Will be interesting to see how far inland the thunder can reach by late afternoon into the evening. Highs on Monday should reach into the 40's but it will feel much cooler with the gusty westerly winds. Most locations will have wind chills in 30's through the day. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Large upper level low pressure system descends south into the Great Lakes region during the first half of this forecast period and it becomes the weather maker for the local area. Strong cold air advection is expected to wrap in from the northwest and west Monday night into Tuesday along with some wrap around moisture. Models continue to advertise deep moisture across the forecast area during this forecast period. Lake enhancement should aid in additional precipitation amounts in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. As 850 MB air temperatures continue to remain consistent with each model run between -4 and -5 degrees C. Instability over the lake still supporting extreme as inversion height approaches 17000 feet and lake induced CAPE approaching 2000 J/Kg. Definitely expecting some rumbles of thunder with the lake enhancement expected; especially when parameters reach their peak Monday night. Model soundings also support threat for accumulating snow in the higher elevations away from Lake Erie in the northeast. Rain/snow mixed can't be ruled out across the rest of the inland areas of the forecast area Monday night. Snow accumulations around 2 to 3 inches expected northeast areas. Precipitation changes over to all rain during the day Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday night as coldest air begins to retreat out to the east. Fair weather begins to return back to the west and south Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes region will quickly begin to exit to the northeast Thursday but an upper level replacement trough should settle into the region by Thursday afternoon. This trough will extend into the deep south and the Gulf of Mexico and quickly advance east of the area by Friday. This should result in surface trough moving east across the area in response to the upper level trough followed by some weak broad ridging across the area. During this process, much drier air should begin to filter into the area along with the beginning of warm air advection into the area. Models are trending toward a significant warm-up as we head into early next week. Otherwise, fair weather should be the rule through much of the period after lake effect retreats to the east. Temperatures should see a gradual warming trend as well. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... A cold front approaching from the northwest this afternoon will return clouds to the area this evening and shift winds from the southwest to the west with its passage. Ceilings with this first batch of clouds will fall to lower VFR range under 5 kft. As low pressure deepens to the north, winds will increase through the night and into Monday and wind gusts up to 30 kts are possible after daybreak on Monday. As colder air settles across the region, ceilings will begin to fall closer to MVFR levels and as lake effect processes begin on the Great Lakes with the cold air, ceilings will fall to MVFR and rain will begin to develop across the region. Have begun early vicinity shower mentions at KCLE and KERI but these will need to be refined further as rain is expected for much of the next several days with the meandering low pressure to the north and lake effect. Outlook...Non-VFR with lake effect rain/snow showers across NE OH into NW PA through Wednesday. Elsewhere scattered showers and low clouds could allow for some non-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Small craft advisory was dropped earlier this morning as winds diminished across the area. This is short lived as another round of stronger winds should arrive tonight from the west. We will likely need another small craft advisory for later tonight and have it continue through at least Monday night as a rather strong low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, as the surface low and resultant troughs and cold fronts interact with the local area, there will be brief periods where winds increase and cause small craft advisory conditions through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ013-014-020>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...MM/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Lombardy