019 FXUS64 KOHX 161803 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 103 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Radar this morning shows light rain continues to spread eastward into Middle Tennessee in association with an upper shortwave trough. Scattered light rain is expected the rest of the morning into the afternoon, with activity becoming more convective as the afternoon progresses and instability increases. Forecast soundings show up to 200 J/Kg MLCAPE and K-index values reaching 35 later this afternoon, which should be enough for some thunderstorms. Despite the weak CAPE, deep layer shear increases up to 70 knots later today so cannot rule out a strong storm or two. Made adjustment to pops based on latest radar and HRRR model runs, but otherwise forecast is generally on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Cold front moves through today with showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will range from around a few hundreths across the southwest to a little over a quarter of an inch for the northeast. The rain will move out northwest to the southeast starting this evening. All showers and thunderstorms will end around midnight. Afternoon highs today will still be warm and pleasant ranging from the middle 60s for the plateau to the lower 70s thanks to the southerly winds. Winds will turn northerly after the front passes and this will usher in some cold fall air. Monday will be sunny and dry. Gusty northerly winds will make Monday feel cold with highs in the 50s. Minimum RH values on Monday will be in the 30s with winds 20-25 mph. This will be borderline red flag criteria. Will continue to watch this and see if a Red Flag Watch will be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Overnight lows Monday night will be cold. All locations across Middle TN will be below freezing with most places in the middle to upper 20s. This should put an end to the growing season...and will issue a freeze watch from 07Z-14Z. Highs on Tuesday will be sunny and only in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday night will be another cold night...similar to Monday night...except Nashville Metro may be right around freezing. Starting Wednesday temperatures continue to rise slower with clear/sunny skies. By next weekend temperatures once again will be in the the upper 60s for the plateau to the middle 70s along the river. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Several admendments possible through 17/18Z. VFR conditions should prevail through majority of forecast period. Some MVFR ceilings possible during times of enhanced convective activity mainly before 17/00Z. Visibilities should be high end VFR to fluctuating into MVFR thresholds during time of enhanced connectivity too. This all aided by surface front generally remaining quasi stationary to our northwest until after 17/00Z when it eventually is pushed southeastward out of mid state region. Upper level troughing influences should push most of moisture southeastward out of area as 07/06Z approaches. Ceiling degradation should begin commencing with SKC conditions prevailing by 17/15Z all terminals. Surface winds will generally be westerly with a slight veering to northwest 17/12Z-17/18Z. Gusts to around 20 kts possible mainly before 17/00Z. |&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 47 62 31 53 / 50 0 0 0 Clarksville 42 59 28 52 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 44 55 24 44 / 70 0 0 0 Columbia 46 62 28 52 / 40 0 0 0 Cookeville 44 57 26 47 / 70 0 0 0 Jamestown 43 54 25 45 / 70 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 46 61 28 50 / 50 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 46 62 28 52 / 60 0 0 0 Waverly 41 58 27 51 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb- Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson- Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry- Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner- Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION.....JB Wright