189 FXUS64 KHGX 161757 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 426 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A FROPA is on its way! This is the main weather story during the short-term period; but before the arrival of this boundary across Southeast TX, another warm and humid day is expected today. Per satellite imagery and sfc obs, a sfc low pressure is located over north-central TX early this morning with a pronounced warm front extending along the TX/OK border. This places us under the warm sector with continued inflow of warm and humid southerly winds over the region. Deep low-level moisture and light winds have led to areas of fog, some locally dense, particularly north of I-10. Fog and stratus should gradually lift/burn by early this morning. Southerly winds, increasing clouds and humidity will result in highs temperatures from the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances will be isolated today with the best chance along the sea/baybreeze and a pre-frontal trough developing this afternoon. Therefore, expect isolated activity by mid-late afternoon along with breezy southerly winds. Rain and storm chances will be increasing as we head into the evening hours. The aforementioned sfc front (wind shift) should be near the Brazos Valley area by 00-03Z Monday (7-9pm), gradually moving south-southeast,and reaching the coast around 10-12Z Monday (5-7am). Now let's talk about precipitation chances. Deep moisture convergence will remain in place over the region; however, instability decreases as the front approaches the region. In addition, a strong shortwave embedded in the west-northwest flow aloft will slide over the region late tonight/early Monday morning. What does it mean?... showers and thunderstorms can be expected with frontal passage, so it will not be a complete washout. The best chances for widespread rain and isolated storms, on the other hand, will arrive with the shortwave by late overnight/early Monday morning. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease from north to south throughout the day on Monday. Another area to monitor on Monday will be across our southwestern counties. Diurnal heating, a deep moisture layer and low-level convergence could destabilize the atmosphere, resulting additional chances for thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible with hail and damaging winds as the main risks. SPC highlights this threat on their Day 2 Convective Outlook. What's next? It will be time to grab a jacket and your favorite fall season drink...A drier and colder airmass will filter in in the wake of this frontal passage on Monday. Actually, the strongest CAA comes in by late Monday afternoon behind the 850mb front. Sfc dewpoints will begin to fall into the 30s and 40s, with temperatures gradually dropping through the overnight hours. Tuesday morning low will be from the mid 40s to upper 50s inland, and in the low 60s along the islands. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 426 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 No major changes with the long-term with our weather pattern large- ly dominated by persistent and dry northerly flow aloft for much of the week and no real return surface flow until late in the week. As the surface high (with the coldest air after the initial Mon front) settles across the state by Weds, we'll have some very low low tem- peratures for both Tue/Weds nights. Have tweaked these numbers down a bit from last night (based somewhat on current temps from way way upstream)...and now going with overnight lows ranging from the mid/ upper 30s for our far northern counties...the lower to mid 40s from the Brazos Valley and south to the more rural locations on the out- skirts of H-Town proper. Closer inside the Houston metro, lows will be in the upper 40s. And for locations on/near the beaches, lows to run from the lower to mid 50s. Highs should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s for both Tues and Weds. Temperatures are forecast to warm thereafter and by Fri/Sat/Sun should be in the lower to mid 80s for much of the CWA (as this air mass slowly modifies and light onshore winds resume). Lows will also warm a bit...in the 50s for Thurs/Fri and then into the 60s by the weekend. 41 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Isolated showers have started to develop offshore and to the west of the Houston metro area, with coverage expected to expand this afternoon ahead of the approach of a cold front overnight. South to southeast winds will persist through the afternoon before becoming lighter and variable ahead of the frontal boundary. Scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, beginning around 02Z-04Z and around 05-08Z for the metro terminals. This will be accompanied by a shift to northerly winds, with a transition to more widespread showers along and in the wake of the boundary and MVFR cigs of around 1500ft developing in the hours following. Showers will persist into tomorrow afternoon, after which precipitation and cigs will diminish as colder and drier air moves in behind the front. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 426 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Generally light to moderate S/SE winds are expected today and this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible late this mor- ning and afternoon, with coverage likely increasing tonight through tomorrow with the approach/passage of a cold front across SE TX and the Upper TX coastal waters . Moderate northerly winds will develop initially behind the front during the day on Mon but these offshore winds should pick up markedly by Mon night. Moderate to strong N/NE winds (15 to 25kts) to develop with gusts in excess of 30kts (up to gale force). Seas will build to 7-9 feet across the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required during this time. Conditions should be improving by late Tues. 41 | && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 66 74 52 / 20 70 80 0 Houston (IAH) 90 68 79 57 / 20 50 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 85 73 79 64 / 20 40 50 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...05