382 FXUS64 KSHV 161753 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1253 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Little change from the plan for the day with latest radar trends showing a nice push along I-20 from Tyler to Longview. This area is sinking to the SE and is stretched over into NW LA with old anvil debris and a large area of showers. The models continue to trend this area of rainfall into deep east Texas this afternoon. We have updated pops from now through the afternoon and overnight for that matter. This is likely the best we can do. The cold front is still edging into our northern most counties, while this outflow boundary has shifted winds to NE all along and south of I-20 from near Jacksonville TX to Mansfield and Monroe LA. Current readings under the clouds and what rain we have seen are in the mid to upper 60s with highs perhaps in the bag or maybe back into the lower 70s. Elsewhere, already warmer 70s can still be found along I-20 and especially in our areas to the south. A mix of sun and clouds will allow for warmer readings into the afternoon. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 We will continue dealing with cold air advection across the entire Four State Region Monday Night through the middle of the upcoming work week before temperatures rebound quickly to end the week. A large upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Lakes with upper ridging noted across the Pacific Northwest. This will result in northwest flow aloft across our region with this flow not changing through much of next week. At the surface, post frontal sfc ridge will remain northwest of our region Monday Night through Tuesday but it's not until Tuesday Night that winds will likely be light enough to introduce freezing temperatures to our northern and northeast half. Thus, a freeze warning will likely become necessary for at least the northern half of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and perhaps, far Northeast Louisiana given ample radiational cooling conditions expected Tuesday Night. Elsewhere, frost will be a good bet with low temperatures near and south of the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana mostly in the middle 30s. The sfc ridge moves south and east of our region Wednesday Night and thus, we should begin seeing a return to light southerly winds during this time with the coldest temperatures across our far eastern and southeast zones. It's that warming southwest wind Thursday through next weekend that will transition our region from the chilly temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, to temperatures near normal for Thursday and back to above normal temperatures for Friday and through the weekend. Low level returning moisture will likely not begin until the very end of the work week but it does not appear significant enough with the lack of upper forcing to generate any precipitation across our region, thus, the long term forecast remains dry. /13/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 For the ArkLaTex terminals, an area of convection is dropping SE over E TX and is stretched with precipitating mid and high clouds into NW LA. Models sink this area toward Toledo Bend by late day as a cold front slides into the area. Already NE winds thanks to an outflow boundary early w/ N/NW overnight into Sunday driving out the limited moisture behind this fropa. The elevated frontal (5kft-10kft) may squeeze out some more light rain overnight with skies clearing from N to S during our Sunday w/ N/NE 5-15KT. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 62 73 47 / 40 40 20 0 MLU 84 62 73 44 / 10 30 10 0 DEQ 75 52 71 38 / 90 20 0 0 TXK 74 58 71 44 / 80 30 10 0 ELD 76 55 69 40 / 40 30 10 0 TYR 79 60 71 47 / 60 40 30 0 GGG 80 60 71 45 / 60 40 20 0 LFK 87 63 74 49 / 20 50 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...33