884 FXUS61 KRLX 161751 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/thunderstorms continue spreading across the south this afternoon. Cold front tonight ushers in the coldest air of the season so far for the early portion of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are currently moving through the southern portion of the CWA this afternoon as moisture is pulled into the area ahead of a cold front. With sufficient moisture and 40+ kts of effective shear, locally damaging wind gusts could be possible within a stronger storm or two; therefore, portions of southeast WV and southwest VA have been outlined in a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. Most shower and storm activity is expected to remain in the southern half of the CWA through the evening, with the severe threat diminishing for tonight. Precipitation then gradually recedes to the east as the front crosses through during the overnight hours. Upper troughing is expected to dig deeper into the eastern US for the beginning of the work week. Cloud cover is expected to persist into the afternoon; however, while a few showers may be possible into Monday morning, drier air at the surface should keep the majority of the area dry during the day. Breezy conditions are also likely from mid morning through the afternoon due to a tight pressure gradient over the CWA. After a mild day today, temperatures are expected to be around normal overnight with lows ranging from upper 30s to 40s. Temperatures then fall below normal as cold air advection sets in behind the front. This should keep high temperatures in the 40s to 50s across the area on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Area will begin to dry out on Monday as quick moving disturbance to the south gradually pushes off to the east. Much cooler air will then filter into the region on Monday as frontal boundary pushes east of CWA, and upper trough/low over Great Lakes region gradually starts to deepen across the CWA. Although temps on Monday won't be extremely cold, the cooler temperatures combined with gusty winds from tight pressure gradient and winds aloft mixing down to at least ridge tops, will be a bit of a shock to the system so to speak. In addition, with the cooler air gradually making its way into the area, widespread freezing temperatures are looking to be a good bet Tuesday morning, and expect a freeze watch to be issued on subsequent shifts. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 AM Sunday... Upper low/trough over Great Lakes will gradually deepen over the area, with a strong NWLY fetch setting up, transporting moisture from the Great Lakes into our CWA. This will create showers, mainly across the north and east, with light snow showers anticipated across the northern mountains. Some lowland locations could even see a few flakes at times, particularly in the overnight period Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expecting the potential for generally an inch or less of accumulation across the higher terrain of the northern mountains, with no accumulation expected elsewhere. Upper trough will eventually kick off to the east Wednesday into Thursday, with drier conditions, and milder conditions taking hold. The dry conditions linger for the remainder of the period, with the potential for a nice warm up by next weekend as southerly flow increases. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Outside of showers and storms primarily in the southern portion of the area, VFR is expected to continue through the day. However, temporary reductions to MVFR/IFR visibility and some lowered ceilings are expected where showers/storms occur. Precipitation continues near EKN/BKW/CKB/CRW overnight, then gradually shifts east out of the area as a cold front crosses through. While SCT to BKN cloud cover is expected to persist through the end of the TAF period, ceilings should lift back to VFR Monday morning. Southwest winds generally remain around 10 kts or less today, though a few stronger gusts may be possible within storms. Winds remain light overnight, then strengthen to around 8-14 kts on Monday, with 15-25 kt gusts from mid-morning through the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight conditions may be worse than forecast within showers/storms today. Extent and duration of MVFR conditions overnight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in snow showers in the higher mountainous terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031-033-034. OH...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JLB