749 FXUS66 KMFR 161750 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1050 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Updated AVIATION Section .DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary this morning. Low clouds in the coastal valleys and in the Umpqua Valley to near Roseburg will gradually retreat to the immediate coast by this afternoon, with stratus expected to persist in southern Curry County. Stratus will make a similar return into the coastal valleys and also into all of the Umpqua Valley tonight into Monday morning. It will then retreat to away from the coast by Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the ridge will continue to shift farther inland through Monday for a brief, modest cooling trend. Inland highs on Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, which will still be well above normal. High pressure will bring a few to several degrees of warming for Tuesday into Thursday, with another batch of near record to record high temperatures. That is expected to be the end of our lengthy avoidance of seasonable conditions. Friday is expected to be a transition day with several degrees of cooling inland, and a stronger marine push into the Umpqua, but still generally above normal temperatures. The big question is what exactly we will transition to. A cold front is likely Friday night with weaker shortwaves to follow in a chilly northwest flow. Temperatures inland on Saturday will be generally below normal for the first time since mid-September. This front isn't likely to produce a large amount of precipitation, but it is likely to usher in a more active pattern. && .AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs...Last minute IFR stratus moved into Roseburg this morning, but these lower conditions should become VFR in the next hour or so. A mix of MVFR and IFR will persist along portions of the coast this afternoon, though recently, some holes have been opening up at North Bend. Have opted to give them at least a few hours of VFR this afternoon. Stratus returns (IFR/MVFR) to all these same areas this evening/overnight. Farther inland south of the Umpqua Divide and also east of the Cascades, other than some hazy skies due to persistent wildfire smoke, expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 800 AM Sunday 16 October 2022...Moderate southerly winds will increase today with an area of low pressure far offshore. This will produce steep, short period seas this afternoon and evening. Conditions then improve tonight into Monday. Winds are expected to become northerly Tuesday then persist through mid- week with steep to very steep seas possible. -CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022/ DISCUSSION... Coastal stratus is currently covering the coast and some of the coastal valleys this morning as the thermal trough retreats farther inland. Temperatures will trend a little cooler today as the overall flow pattern changes to more southerly into the late afternoon and evening ahead of the next approaching low. There will be a warm front pushing towards the area later tonight into Monday morning. One may even see some high clouds move into the area as this warm front appraisees. In fact, there are some high clouds should up on satellite this morning about 100 miles from the California coast. By Monday morning, not much will really change as the upper level low to our west stalls out as it hits the strong ridge to our east. We'll see a disorganized flow pattern persist over the area as temperatures remain on the warmer side, although relatively cooler than what we observed yesterday. Wednesday into Thursday are definitely days to watch out for with respect to high temperature records. Right now, we're forecasting a record high of 86 in Medford on the 19th, which would break the old record of 83 set in 1999. By the end of next week into next weekend, the weather will begin to look more like fall. The flow pattern becomes more westerly to northwesterly with some of the deterministic models showing some well defined cold fronts moving through the Pacific Northwest. The NBM is predicting high temperatures in the 60's west of the Cascades and 50's east of the Cascades on both Saturday and Sunday. Many people are wondering how much rain we could see here starting next weekend. WPC's deterministic forecasting is putting a couple of hundreths down west of the Cascades with a few tenths in the Cascades. There are indeed wetter solutions here with the latest NBM forecast putting down 0.5 inches of rain in the Cascades between Friday evening to mid day Saturday. -Smith FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT 16 October 2022...East winds will persist through this morning, strongest along the Cascades and Siskiyous. Poor overnight recoveries and red flag conditions are currently being observed in sections of the Cascades tonight. Easterly flow continues into Monday night, but will be considerably weaker and recoveries will be improved. A wind shift by later this evening into Monday will result in better recoveries and relatively cooler temperatures into the start of next week. However, temperatures will still remain above normal for this time of year into much of next week. Confidence is high in a significant pattern change by next weekend with temperatures cooling to seasonal normals. Wetting rains are looking probable across portions of the area this weekend, but exactly where and how much is uncertain at this point. There are still a few model solutions which do remain dry through next weekend, although even those eventually bring rain into the forecast by the 24th to 26th. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ617-621-623. CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ281. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ DW/CC/CC