276 FXUS64 KSJT 161748 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Rainfall and cooler temperatures on the way... A cold front will be moving south across the area today, reaching the Abilene area around mid morning, the Concho Valley and Heartland by early afternoon and the I-10 corridor by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a closed upper low currently over southern Arizona, will track eastward across New Mexico and into West Texas as it weakens Sunday night into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today as the front moves south across the area. A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon ahead of the front, primarily south and west of a Mertzon to Junction line, where instability and shear will be supportive of stronger updrafts. The main threat will be large hail and strong wind gusts but the overall threat should be rather low. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 80s across far southern sections prior to frontal passage. Temperatures will fall behind the front this afternoon and by sunset will range from the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere. Precipitation chances will remain high tonight into Monday morning as upper level support increases with the approaching system. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected, with the potential for heavy rainfall, especially across western portions of the Concho Valley and the northern Edwards Plateau. Rainfall amounts between 1.50 and 2 inches is expected across this area, with locally higher amounts possible. This may result in some minor flooding issues, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Precipitation will be decreasing from north to south Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with dry weather returning for the overnight period. Temperatures on Monday will be well below normal, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 60s. Tuesday through Friday will be dry, with below normal temperatures through mid week, warming to near normal by the end of the week. Tuesday night should be the coldest night of the week, as ideal radiational cooling takes place under mostly clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Scattered rain showers have developed and will increase in coverage this evening and tonight. Moderate rain with isolated pockets of heavy rain, lightning, and small hail are all possible. Expect some gusty, erratic winds in the vicinity of isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, look for some reduced visibility at times when heavy rain is present. MVFR to IFR conditions will be in place through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 55 62 46 63 / 80 60 10 0 San Angelo 53 62 47 64 / 80 90 20 0 Junction 55 66 46 64 / 70 80 30 10 Brownwood 56 64 46 64 / 80 70 10 0 Sweetwater 53 60 47 64 / 80 70 10 0 Ozona 55 61 47 61 / 80 90 30 10 Brady 55 62 47 62 / 70 80 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...41