302 FXUS63 KDLH 161741 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Summary: Gusty winds, rain and snow showers, and lake-effect snow are the main concerns as of this morning. Strong and gusty northwest winds are expected today through Monday with temperatures gradually cooling. Rain showers will turn over to snow showers today and significant lake-effect snow is expected over northern portions of Iron County. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for that area starting at 7 PM tonight. Quieter weather is expected from Tuesday through Saturday. A more active period is possible early next week. A very high amplitude trough was situated over eastern North America early this morning. A surface low was located over James Bay with high pressure over the northern Canadian Prairies. The pressure gradient between these two features will tighten today as a lobe of vorticity advances southward over northwest Ontario and Minnesota. The surface low center is expected to re-establish over southern Ontario this afternoon. Strong cold air advection aloft will gradually cool the column across the area today. Look for rain showers to change over to snow showers later today and continue through Monday. The strong winds from the tight pressure gradient will be aided by mixing into strong northerly winds aloft. Sustained winds today of 5 to 15 mph are expected with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Similar conditions are expected for Monday. Along with the cold air advection and strong northerly winds, lake-effect snow is a concern over snowbelt areas of northwest and north-central Wisconsin tonight and Monday. Warm lake surface temperatures of 45 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit and strong winds with building waves will contribute to considerable heat and moisture flux over Lake Superior. Lake-induced CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg are forecast which will contribute to deep convective snow showers tonight. North-northwesterly winds will favor heavy lake- effect snow along the slopes of the Penokee Range in Iron and Ashland counties. Snow accumulation in those areas of 4 to 12 inches are expected from early this evening through the afternoon Monday. Lower snow totals are expected farther inland and over the remainder of the snowbelt. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Iron County. Advisories may be added later for Ashland and Price counties should higher snow totals become likely for those locations. Conditions will gradually improve Monday night and Tuesday as the low-pressure system drifts farther eastward and a ridge over western North American shifts farther eastward. A general warming trend is expected through next weekend. Temperatures may reach the 50s to low 60s by Friday and tick a few degrees warmer Saturday and Sunday. There will be a few chances of showers during the period, but widespread precipitation chances appear unlikely until next Sunday or Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Cigs will primarily be MVFR through tonight as a strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes slowly moves southeast. Scattered rain showers, mixing with snow at times, will be possible this afternoon and evening for all terminals except BRD. INL and BRD will likely begin improving to VFR on Monday morning as low pressure slides east. Farther east in the region, MVFR stratus will likely linger into Monday. Expect winds, primarily from the northwest, to be gusty throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Strong winds will develop early this morning and continue into Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday in response to a strong and slow- moving low pressure system over Ontario and Quebec this morning. Northwest winds are expected through midweek. Wind speeds and gusts will increase today and be hazardous for smaller vessels initially. Gales of 35 to 40 knots are expected over portions of the South Shore and Outer Apostle islands starting this afternoon and along the North Shore from Silver Bay to Grand Portage starting early this evening. The gales will subside by late Monday afternoon and additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed after they expire. In addition to the dangerous winds, waves will build to 6 to 10 feet along the South Shore from Port Wing to the Outer Apostle Islands and from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. Please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message for details on Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings in effect. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 40 22 34 21 / 30 20 10 0 INL 36 20 33 19 / 60 30 0 0 BRD 39 23 34 20 / 20 0 0 0 HYR 41 20 35 20 / 60 30 20 0 ASX 44 25 37 25 / 70 60 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for WIZ004. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146>148-150. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ146>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...Huyck