210 FXUS64 KHUN 161730 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 933 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Light showers can be seen on radar ahead of a cold front currently pushing south through southern MO and into TN. Expect the rain to remain just to our north as the steering flow is predominantly westerly to the south of the trough axis. Will remain in a warm sectored airmass today, with increasing moisture advected by southwesterly sfc flow. Moisture convergence will increase ahead of the cold front later this afternoon and evening, and have tweaked PoPs up slightly along the AL/TN border. Overall, expect coverage to be limited and primarily confined to areas along and north of the TN River this afternoon and evening. Have maintained the highest PoPs (50%) across southern middle TN around and just after sunset, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Rainfall amounts should remain below 0.25", with very little if any impacts. Otherwise, look for highs near 80 degrees this afternoon with increasing cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Precipitation will shift east of the area late this evening, as the cold front pushes southeast and upper level support wanes. Much cooler and drier air will advect into the region Monday with highs in the 60s. Strong cold advection will persist Monday night into Tuesday, with temperatures dipping into the upper 20s in southern middle TN and lower 30s. Have hoisted a Freeze Watch in our TN counties. Deep layer cold northerly flow will continue through Wednesday as well as a high amplitude trough digging into the eastern CONUS. A hard freeze is likely for some areas on Wednesday morning, with lows in the middle 20s to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Unseasonably cold/dry air will remain entrenched across the mid TN Valley heading into mid week, as a large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states builds eastward into much of the region. Freezing conditions are once again expected Thu morning, before a gradual warming trend develops by the end the work week, with the sfc highs drifting further east into the southern Atlantic Coast. Afternoon highs will climb more into the seasonal lower/mid 70s with the onset of the weekend period, while overnight lows return to the lower/mid 40s early Sat. This overall pattern will also maintain mostly sunny/clear skies into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, except for a few brief periods of rain that could lower vsbys between 03-06z. Skies will clear behind a cold front after midnight and breezy northerly winds will follow on Monday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...25