314 FXUS62 KMFL 161713 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 113 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 840 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Overall a nice Sunday morning across South Florida, under partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. No major changes were made to the near term grids, although did bump up sky cover a tad for this afternoon. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening still remains over Miami-Dade and shifting over to Collier and Mainland Monroe. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Drier air is finally beginning to filter in from the northeast early this morning as evident by satellite-derived PWATs and the southward progression of the mid-lvl cloud deck. The drier air will gradually progress southwestward through the day which will consequently result in rain chances also pivoting southwestward with time. Therefore expect some AM showers/storms near the east coast and Atlantic waters with activity largely shifting into the Everglades/ far SW Florida by this afternoon, with the remainder of the area finally getting a dry day. Given continued cool temperatures aloft can't rule out a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail, but the limited convective coverage should inhibit the overall threat apart from perhaps far southern portions of the area. The high to our north will weaken and shift further offshore on Monday as an area of low pressure progresses across the eastern US. This will result in the synoptic easterly gradient weakening with winds ultimately veering more southwesterly ahead of the next front by late Monday. The veering of the low-lvl winds will result in moisture returning to the area from the SW. This increase in moisture combined with convergence near the advancing Gulf Breeze (and potentially later in the afternoon the Atlantic breeze) will result in increased precipitation chances relative to today. However, at this point guidance is all over the place regarding convective coverage with solutions ranging from numerous storms progressing NEwrd with time, to a more isolated threat limited to the Gulf Breeze itself. For now will split the difference and increase PoPs somewhat but cap in the 30-40% range. High temperatures will run in the mid to upper 80s both days with slightly warmer temperatures possible Monday on the east coast as the onshore flow weakens. Overnight lows will largely be in the low to mid 70s with the highest values near the east coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Tuesday/Wednesday: The sfc cold front should pass through the area on Tuesday (although likely not clearing the area until Wed AM), while per usual the 925-850mb boundaries will lag behind and not clear the area until late Wed. As mentioned in previous discussions the best upper-lvl dynamics will remain to our north with the low- lvl boundary "outrunning" its upper support. This will result in precipitation coverage/intensity likely being somewhat limited as it will be driven by sfc. convergence and moisture pooling. There is the potential for some better large-scale ascent Wed as the right- entrance region of the UL jet sinks southward, however by this point the surface boundary will have already moved through the area. So at present the overall (poor) phasing of low-lvl and upper-lvl dynamics does not appear ideal for precipitation intensity/coverage. Thursday-Saturday: Forecast uncertainty increases in the late week period as a secondary shortwave will pivot southward down the base of the larger eastern US trough and there is disagreement on if this wave will remain progressive or alternatively, becomes a closed low in the vicinity of the SE US. The progressive solution would keep us mostly dry apart from some light/shallow showers over the east coast/Atlantic waters as high pressure to our north would support a dry N-NE flow. The closed-low solution (mostly championed by the EC/EPS) would favor more unsettled weather with wrap-around precipitation likely as a frontal wave develops on the boundary to our south. Although the bulk of deterministic guidance would favor the progressive solution, a look at the H5 clusters (formed by the major global ensembles) shows a bit more support for the more amplified solution). Consequently will retain middle of the road (largely Chc) PoPs for the latter extended period, although these could be overdone if the progressive/drier solution pans out. Regardless of the uncertainties mentioned above, it does look likely that cooler conditions will prevail behind the front Wednesday- Saturday, and it will certainly be the coolest stretch we have seen since last dry season. After another warm day on Tuesday, highs will struggle to get out of the 70s area-wide Wednesday/Thursday before warming up slightly, but likely still remaining below normal for Friday/Saturday. Overnight lows will be similarly cool with 50s possible in the Interior and 60s over the coastal regions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. VCTS at MIA/TMB/APF this afternoon into early evening for scattered storms in the area. Some brief flight restrictions are possible if storms pass over or near the terminals. E/NE winds around 10 kts this afternoon with occasional gusts near 20 kts. Winds relax to around 5 kts tonight and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Cautionary/near-cautionary northeasterly winds will persist across area waters today, with seas running in the 3-5 ft range (highest near the Gulf Stream). Winds and seas will decrease Monday into Tuesday before potentially increasing again towards the middle of the week behind a cold front. Storm chances will decrease a bit today, outside of the southern Gulf waters, before increasing again early next week as the front approaches. && .BEACHES... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Breezy NErly flow will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches today, with the risk likely becoming low Mon/Tuesday as the winds decrease and eventually shift offshore by Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 88 75 88 / 10 40 20 40 West Kendall 73 88 72 88 / 10 40 20 40 Opa-Locka 74 87 73 88 / 10 40 20 50 Homestead 74 85 73 87 / 20 40 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 75 88 / 10 40 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 74 87 / 10 40 20 50 Pembroke Pines 74 86 73 87 / 10 40 20 50 West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 0 40 20 60 Boca Raton 75 88 73 88 / 0 40 20 50 Naples 71 85 73 83 / 30 40 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...CMF