683 FXUS62 KILM 161709 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 100 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to produce dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night. Cold high pressure is then expected Tuesday into the late week period with the possibility of patchy frost well inland during the midweek mornings. && .UPDATE/... No changes to the forecast this morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered to our south, both at the surface and mid- levels, will keep area dry and sunny today. Another day of above normal warmth with high temps in the low 80s, approaching 85F. Afternoon sea breeze will keep coastline near 80 degrees. Tonight, ridging gets suppressed to southward as the trough deepens over the Great Lakes. 500mb shortwave energy moving across tonight combined with approach of a pre-frontal trough will increased high cloud coverage overnight. Could see a few light showers make it to northwestern areas near I-95, but lingering dry air in the low levels will make it tough for precipitation to make it to the surface and majority of rainfall will dissipate before reaching our CWA. Low temps tonight around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday will be the final warm day before a strong cold front crosses the area Mon night. Deep westerly downslope flow will help push temps above normal once again although increasing mid to high clouds will keep readings from getting much 80. Best chc of any convection ahead of the cold front will come later Mon aftn into the evening but instability remains elevated and moisture lacking in lower levels. Overall, may see an isolated stronger storm develop with potential for enhanced wind gusts in increasing deeper layer shear ahead of front late aftn into early eve. Once front passes offshore Mon night, plenty of cool and dry air will advect into the area with 850 temps dropping rapidly after midnight from near 13c down close to 5c by Tues morning. Dewpoint temps will drop a good 15 to 20 degrees behind the front with temps down below 50 inland by daybreak. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much cooler airmass will settle into the Carolinas as high pressure builds in behind exiting cold front, as mid to upper trough deepens and lingers over the eastern CONUS through midweek. Potential for frost will increase across inland areas as conditions become more favorable through midweek, with winds diminishing and clear and cool high pressure reaching closer overhead Wed night into early Thurs. The best chc of frost will be for a couple of hours right near daybreak Wed morning with a better chc early Thurs morning. Conditions will modify Thurs into the weekend as mid to upper trough lifts and dampens out with H5 height rises. Temps down in the 30s midweek will rebound closer to 50 by Sat morning. High temps down near 60 on Wed will rebound back into the 70s Fri into the weekend. Expect plenty of sunshine Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR. SW flow to moisten the column but mainly just in the upper levels. Maintained the low-level wind shear for a few hours at end of TAF period for inland terminals, with winds around 35kts at 2000 ft though some guidance backing off. Precipitation now looks slower and generally later than the TAF period. Extended Outlook...High confidence in mainly VFR but could see some restrictions late Monday into early Tuesday as a cold front passes through with some low clouds/showers/possible thunderstorms. Breezy southwest winds also likely Monday. Cold high pressure settles in during midweek period, with active N to NW flow. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure centered to our south will keep area sunny and dry today, with WSW winds less than 10 kts through the afternoon. Southwest winds increase this evening as high pressure shifts offshore and a pre-frontal surface trough approaches tightening the pressure gradient. SW winds 15-20 kts expected tonight. Seas around 2 ft today will increase to 3-4 ft tonight as southwest wind wave quickly builds, joining the persisting 1-2 ft 9 sec E swell. Monday through Thursday...Winds will increase out of the SW ahead of approaching cold front, reaching up to 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. May see potential for Small Craft Advisory in increasing winds and seas late Mon into early Tues. WNA shows peak of seas just after midnight with most waters in the 3 to 5 ft range with some 6 fters mainly just beyond the 20 nm range of our local waters. Winds will shift around from SW to NW-N behind cold front into midweek as high pressure builds into the region. Seas will drop Tues through Wed becoming 3 ft or less. A slightly longer period 8 o 9 sec swell will mix in. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MBB