639 FXUS64 KSHV 161646 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Little change from the plan for the day with latest radar trends showing a nice push along I-20 from Tyler to Longview. This area is sinking to the SE and is stretched over into NW LA with old anvil debris and a large area of showers. The models continue to trend this area of rainfall into deep east Texas this afternoon. We have updated pops from now through the afternoon and overnight for that matter. This is likely the best we can do. The cold front is still edging into our northern most counties, while this outflow boundary has shifted winds to NE all along and south of I-20 from near Jacksonville TX to Mansfield and Monroe LA. Current readings under the clouds and what rain we have seen are in the mid to upper 60s with highs perhaps in the bag or maybe back into the lower 70s. Elsewhere, already warmer 70s can still be found along I-20 and especially in our areas to the south. A mix of sun and clouds will allow for warmer readings into the afternoon. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 We will continue dealing with cold air advection across the entire Four State Region Monday Night through the middle of the upcoming work week before temperatures rebound quickly to end the week. A large upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Lakes with upper ridging noted across the Pacific Northwest. This will result in northwest flow aloft across our region with this flow not changing through much of next week. At the surface, post frontal sfc ridge will remain northwest of our region Monday Night through Tuesday but it's not until Tuesday Night that winds will likely be light enough to introduce freezing temperatures to our northern and northeast half. Thus, a freeze warning will likely become necessary for at least the northern half of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and perhaps, far Northeast Louisiana given ample radiational cooling conditions expected Tuesday Night. Elsewhere, frost will be a good bet with low temperatures near and south of the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana mostly in the middle 30s. The sfc ridge moves south and east of our region Wednesday Night and thus, we should begin seeing a return to light southerly winds during this time with the coldest temperatures across our far eastern and southeast zones. It's that warming southwest wind Thursday through next weekend that will transition our region from the chilly temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, to temperatures near normal for Thursday and back to above normal temperatures for Friday and through the weekend. Low level returning moisture will likely not begin until the very end of the work week but it does not appear significant enough with the lack of upper forcing to generate any precipitation across our region, thus, the long term forecast remains dry. /13/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 For the 16/12z TAFs...Radar imagery is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms moving through northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and portions of southwest Arkansas. Should see some changes to KTXK shortly as they will be the first terminals impacted. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through the region through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon hours. Have mention of at least VCTS in for most terminals for today. Have been seeing some MVFR to occasional IFR cigs across portions of the area, which will only continue to deteriorate under the increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 62 73 47 / 40 40 20 0 MLU 84 62 73 44 / 10 30 10 0 DEQ 75 52 71 38 / 90 20 0 0 TXK 74 58 71 44 / 80 30 10 0 ELD 76 55 69 40 / 40 30 10 0 TYR 79 60 71 47 / 60 40 30 0 GGG 80 60 71 45 / 60 40 20 0 LFK 87 63 74 49 / 20 50 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...33