932 FXUS61 KILN 161642 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1242 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of a cold front that is crossing the region today, west winds will usher in a significantly colder airmass for the beginning of the work week. A cutoff low pressure system over Lake Huron will keep a deep cold pool over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday evening. After the low moves east and then retrogrades to the north, temperatures will begin to make a rebound for the latter part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast seems to be running on track and did not need to be adjusted in any significant manner this morning/early afternoon. Adjustments were made to bring observed values to current forecast, which was minorly tweaked to a representative blend of model guidance. A cold front will push southeast across the area today but with a dry airmass in place, any precipitation looks to stay mainly southeast of ILN/s area. Have limited pops to slight chance in the far southeast this afternoon. Temperatures to reach highs from the lower 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Mid and upper level trof sharpens up over the Great Lakes tonight into Monday. Model solutions area consistent with upper level low developing to our north over Michigan. Expect partly cloudy skies overnight and winds staying up around 10 mph should mitigate the development of frost tonight. Lows tonight to range from 35 to 40. Clouds increase Monday with temperatures turning colder. Highs look to be about 20 degrees below normal -- ranging from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The influence of the anomalous upper level low is featured at the onset of the long term period with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday night. Cloud cover and elevated winds keep the lowest temperatures for southwest locations across southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky. Any showers that developed Monday afternoon will be on a weakening trend into the overnight period. Forecast Tuesday still quite pessimistic with temperatures remaining in the 40s area wide, and breezy conditions resulting in apparent temperatures in the 30s. Shower chances are still in the forecast with diurnal enhancement during the afternoon. Tuesday night, the upper level low begins to slowly shift to the northeast, allowing the high pressure to build into the local area. Steady winds are still present during the overnight, but similar to Monday night, the lowest temperatures will be across the southwest. Air mass modifies only slightly on Wednesday as high pressure builds further into the south. Cloud cover slowly pulls to the northeast during the afternoon, allowing southern locations to climb into the 50s. Wind forecast is lower but still expect wind gusts between 20- 25 mph. Temperatures are once again below normal into Thursday but southwesterly flow supports warmer temperatures with the only exception being locations across the northeast. Cloud cover persists through the day, inhibiting efficient warming despite the more favorable flow. The longwave synoptic flow finally evolves into a different orientation to wrap up the long term period. The flow becomes more zonal on Friday as a new trough digs into the northwest CONUS. Into Saturday, zonal flow begins to build into more of a ridge over the eastern CONUS, favoring continued support for warmer temperatures area wide. In fact, near to slightly above normal temperatures appear possible Saturday. Dry weather is in store from Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Mean long wave trof continues to be situated over Southeast Canada and the Eastern CONUS. A weak embedded shortwave and weak isentropic lift will continue to offer mid level clouds this morning. A cold front will push southeast across the area today but with a dry airmass in place, any precipitation looks to remain southeast of the TAF sites. Clouds decrease this afternoon into this evening with a period of scattered high level clouds followed by an increase in mid level clouds overnight. South winds at 5 to 10 kts to veer southwest around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. West to northwest winds at 6 to 10 kts will be observed overnight. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082- 088. KY...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks/AR NEAR TERM...Franks/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...AR