931 FXUS63 KABR 161611 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1111 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Forecast remains on track, with little in the way of adjustments needed this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon) Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Current temperatures under a broad layer of stratus will likely influence high temperatures for today thanks to cold advection and hit or miss sunshine. Eventually some clearing shows up in guidance, particularly west of the James late this morning, though the stratus layer extends well up into Canada with a fetch into the eastern parts of the CWA, so some uncertainty on how long we should remain cloudy, with guidance clearing the rest of us out later this afternoon. Nothing on radar thus far so have yanked any mention of sprinkles. Big question is cloud cover for tonight with the CWA remaining under mid level baroclinicity, and the potential for another round of mid/low clouds showing up in guidance. With how dry it is, and a surface ridge extending into the eastern Dakotas, should see favorable radiation conditions for most of the night, with guidance leveling 20s across the CWA for lows. Under cold Canadian high pressure, temperatures will only recover into the 40s Monday, though with light winds at least the fire weather threat will be marginalized. .LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The large surface high over northern Manitoba will extend a ridge down through the eastern Dakotas, NE and KS by 00Z Tuesday. At 500mb we'll be stuck with northerly flow in between the sizable low east of MI that will have a trough over the entire eastern U.S., and the large over the western third of the country. Cold air will remain in place Monday night and Tuesday. Teens to low 20s are likely, with a few single digit lows not completely out of the question across the James River Valley. Highs will only be in the 40s, or around 15F below average as the surface high sinks overhead Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The high will continue to sink to the Southern Plains Wednesday. By 18Z Wednesday we should have a frontal boundary over western SD through eastern ND that will sink southeast across the forecast by 03Z Thursday. Warmer air on west to southwest winds will return Thursday, with 850mb temperatures over 15C across our southwest counties 00-06Z Friday. 60 degree surface temperatures will be likely for all but far eastern SD/west central MN Thursday afternoon. The above average temperatures look to last through at least Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds will be brisk out of the north northwest, but these will eventually subside this evening with high pressure building in. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lueck SHORT TERM...Connelly LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Connelly