205 FXUS61 KAKQ 161423 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1023 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak sfc trough will be located over the area today. A strong cold front will move across the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure centered across the center of the U.S. will extend east into the Mid-Atlantic following the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday... Light showers from earlier this morning have tapered off, although, cannot completely rule out a brief light sprinkle near the upper Ches Bay over the next hour. Otherwise, cloud cover is split with more clouds over the N 1/3 of the FA associated with the first shortwave from earlier this morning and clouds over the S 1/3 of the FA associated with the stronger shortwave moving through the TN Valley. In between, breaks in the clouds have formed which have allowed temps to rise into the mid 60s as of 10 AM (lower 60s for areas under cloud cover). Another seasonally warm day with highs in the mid 70s N and upper 70s to near 80F S. A broad upper-level trough will dig southeast over the Ohio Valley today. As it begins to move southeast, the aforementioned shortwave pivoting around the base through the TN Valley will allow for increasing clouds over the area from the SW through the day. Southwest flow aloft and at the sfc will allow for modest moisture return by this evening/overnight (generally mid to upper 50s dew points). Expect showers to develop later this afternoon and move E into the area into the overnight hours. At the same time, a weak (roughly E-W oriented) boundary will move into the central portion of the FA allowing for showers to train. The first round of showers may allow for dew points to rise just enough (upper 50s to near 60F) for a few hundred joules of CAPE. This combined with mid level lapse rates of 6-6.8C (higher S) and sufficient deep layer shear aloft (50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear) may be enough for charge separation and isolated, elevated storms late this afternoon through early tonight. However, given the elevated nature of the storms, sub- severe winds and perhaps isolated instances of pea sized hail cannot be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Rain is expected to spread into the area from west to east this evening as the sfc trough deepens over the Appalachian Mountains. At the same time, the upper-level trough will be digging south towards the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow for a deep layer of moist air to move into the region. PWAT values are forecasted to climb to 1.25"-1.35" this evening and tonight. A weak boundary will be located across central VA this evening. This boundary will be the focus area for heavy rain. Most likely area to see the heaviest rain will be in a line from Farmville- Richmond/Petersburg-Williamsburg-Northampton County, VA. Periods of heavy rain is likely with some training possible. Local urban and poor drainage flooding is possible this evening if heaviest cells train over the same area. Highest rainfall total will be 1.00"-2.00". The axis of heaviest rain will drift southeast tonight, but at the same time, area coverage and intensity of rain is expected to decrease as this line moves southeast towards Norfolk. Not expecting thunderstorms at this time, but cannot rule out an isolated storm. Heaviest rain is expected to be between 8 PM and Midnight. Chances for showers will continue through the remainder of Sunday night and into Monday morning as the weak boundary remains over the area. The strong cold front will be moving over the Blue Ridge Monday morning. The front will likely pass as a dry front until it reaches the I-95 corridor early Monday afternoon. There is a better chance for the develop of showers and thunderstorms along the front as it moves east of I-95 Monday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to near 80s across Hampton Roads and NE NC Monday afternoon. This will allow for some instability for thunderstorm to form. SPC has placed NE NC and extreme SE VA in a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Monday. The strongest storms will be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts. The rain will move off the coast with the cold front Monday night. Much colder and drier air will move into the area Monday night following the front. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will range from the mid 30s across the central VA Piedmont to near 50F at the coast. The area of high pressure that is bring the colder air into the area will be moving south across the Plain states, but extend east over the Mid-Atlantic. This will keep the coldest air west of the mountains, and lead to a NW flow (downsloping) over the local area. Even with the high pressure centered well west of the area, temperatures will be well blow average Tuesday through Thursday. Under mostly sunny skies on Tuesday, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s as cold air continues to move into the area. Calm winds and clear skies Tuesday night will result in temperatures near freezing away from the bay and ocean. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s inland with a chance for widespread frost. Near the coast, a slight breeze will continue and with warm water temperatures, lows will stay in the lower to mid 40s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... A deep trough will be located over the eastern half of the U.S. midweek. This trough will send a sfc high pressure south from Canada, and will be centered over the southern Plains, but extend east to the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow for well below average temperatures across the region. Temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be around freezing for many locations away from the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean. The warmer waters will keep temperatures in the 40s near the bay and ocean. Father inland across the VA Piedmont, there is a chance that temperatures could drop into the upper 20s Thursday morning. The trough will lift north late next week and the ridge over the Western U.S. breaks down. High pressure will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeastern U.S. at the same time. This will keep the area dry into the weekend, and will begin to see a slow warming trend. High temperatures will steadily climb each day, from around 60F on Thursday to the low 70s by the weekend. Low temperatures will also climb each with the coldest morning being Thursday morning. Low will be in the 40s inland and 50s at the coast by the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... High clouds will be moving in from the west throughout the day on Sunday. Clouds will thicken Sunday evening as rain begins to move in. Mainly VFR through 00z Monday. CIGs are expected to fall to 2,000-4,000 Sunday night. Heavy rain will also be moving across the area. Vis will be lowered in the heaviest on rain cells. Not expected thunderstorms at this time, but there is a slight chance of an isolated storm. Light and variable winds overnight through Sunday afternoon with a general SW component Sunday. Outlook: Cold front will cross the area on Monday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across the S. A period of sub- VFR conditions will be possible Sunday night and Monday with the showers. && .MARINE... As of 115 AM EDT Saturday... Sfc hi pres will remain situated to the S of the local waters...INVOF the coastal Carolinas. A weakening cold front approaches from the WNW today then washes out over the local waters tonight. Winds SSW 5-15 kt starting out may briefing become WNW this morning...OTW...WSW to S winds will avg AOB 10 kt most of today. Waves 1-2 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the W tonight/Mon...SW winds increase to 10-20 kt. That cold front crosses the Mid Atlc region Mon night...to be followed low level CAA and gusty NW winds into Tue afternoon. A secondary cold front crosses the local waters Tue night/Wed morning. At minimum...a SCA will likely be needed for portions of the waters for late Mon night into (possibly) Wed. Waves mainly 1-2 ft in the bay/seas 2-4 ft today-Mon. A bit of an increase in waves/seas Mon night into Wed due to NW winds and CAA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AJB/CP MARINE...ALB/TMG