524 FXUS62 KTAE 161422 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1022 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Morning satellite shows clear skies over land with a field of marine cumulus moving northwestward in a region of modest moisture and decent instability. Surface high pressure maintains mostly dry weather today outside of potential for a few showers (isolated thunder) beginning offshore from the Emerald Coast, then spreading inland to the Panhandle. Rain chances were adjusted to account for the latest trends. High temperatures climb towards the upper 80s this afternoon (a few locations may reach 90). Muggier conditions are expected along/south of the I-10 corridor as dew points ranging from the 60s to low 70s surge onshore from moist southeast flow. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Some changes will start to take place today as the surface flow veers to a southerly direction this afternoon with an increase in low level moisture. Dewpoints near 70 will likely return to the panhandle coast later this afternoon. There may be just enough lift and surface convergence to squeeze out a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm near the panhandle coast later this afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the 80s areawide this afternoon. For tonight, low level moisture will continue to increase, especially across the western areas. Fog development is expected, with the best chance of seeing dense fog across the western areas and lesser chances the farther east you go. Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 60s across the eastern portion of the area to the mid to upper 60s across the west with increasing moisture. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A deepening trough across eastern CONUS will bring with it a cold front on Monday, passing through the region by Tuesday night. Our best PoP chances lie along areas near the coast and offshore as that is where the best instability is expected to be. Otherwise, this front is expected to be mostly a dry front for areas inland. Some modest warm air advection ahead of the front on Monday will turn into strong cold air advection on Tuesday. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before falling into the mid and upper 60s for most of the area on Tuesday. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 50s, with low 50s to the northwest and upper 50s to the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Post-frontal we'll see temps take a dive as strong CAA moves into the region in the cold fronts' wake. High temps struggle to make it out of the 60s on Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s by Sunday. Similarly, overnight lows potentially dipping into the mid to upper 30s for most of the CWA Thursday morning before rebounding to around 50 degrees by Sunday. Calm winds and radiational cooling peak Thursday morning, making it an anomalously chilly morning. Otherwise, sunny and dry conditions are expected to persist into the weekend post-frontal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. Some southerly return flow will begin off the Gulf this afternoon. Enough moisture will return at first to support higher-based fair weather cumulus. Confidence in fair weather cu is highest further west at ECP and DHN, and lowest further east at VLD. For late tonight, areas of fog are expected to develop with the best chances at ECP and DHN where LIFR conditions are expected. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected, although LIFR cannot be ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Morning offshore buoy observations show southeast winds around 12 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas. A slight chance of showers and isolated thunder was introduced for waters mainly along and west of Indian Pass through midday. Chances then increase slightly off the Emerald Coast this afternoon. Winds turn southerly on Monday ahead of a cold front, followed by cautionary to borderline advisory offshore post frontal winds Tuesday and Wednesday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Warm and mostly dry weather will continue this afternoon with min RH values ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s mainly north of I-10. Light winds will also maintain low dispersions across the southeast big bend. Noticeable moisture recovery occurs on Monday as flow turns southwesterly off the Gulf ahead of a cold front. Low-end rain chances accompany the front through Monday night, but are mainly confined to the coast. Otherwise, increased sky cover should at least provide shading of fuels in addition to lower temperatures. After the frontal passage on Tuesday, breezy north flow ushers in a very dry airmass that prompts min RH to plummet into the mid 20s primarily north of the FL border. Pockets of high dispersions are also possible. These conditions introduce elevated fire danger. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 There are currently no flooding concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 63 86 59 / 0 0 30 20 Panama City 84 68 83 57 / 20 10 30 20 Dothan 87 63 84 51 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 86 62 84 52 / 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 88 61 86 57 / 0 0 30 20 Cross City 89 64 85 63 / 0 10 40 30 Apalachicola 83 68 82 61 / 10 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...DVD MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Oliver