965 FXUS61 KOKX 161358 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 958 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds into the region today before a frontal system crosses the area late tonight into Monday. The associated parent low lingers back within the Great Lakes early to mid week. The low moves farther northward late in the week allowing high pressure to build in from the south and west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast continues to be on track. The cold front has now pushed offshore. A dry day is expected, with dewpoints dropping steadily through the day. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s. An upper level low and associated trough will move into the Great Lakes region tonight. At the surface, a warm front will approach from the south. Expect clouds to increase and a chance of showers, after midnight Temperatures Sunday night will be in the 40s inland and upper 40s to low to mid 50s along the coast. Depending on how quickly the clouds move in, there is a chance that the long Island Pine Barren region sees temperatures fall into the lower or middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The low pressure system over the Great Lakes slows down and forced the aforementioned warm front to lift north of the region during the day Monday. This warm front will eventually be followed by a cold front front Monday night into Tuesday morning. A wave of low is expected to develop along this cold front as it moves through, resulting in POPs remaining in the forecast for LI and CT into Tuesday. The highest POPs can be expected during the day Monday, when chances for rain becomes likely to categorical. The POPs will then gradually lower Monday night into Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will be dry, with the exception of the far eastern sections of LI and CT. The front finally slides further east by Tuesday night, with dry conditions in its wake. Rainfall amounts at this time, will generally remain below a half inch, however a few isolated higher amounts will be possible. Highs on Monday be in the 60s, while Tuesday, highs only reach the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No major changes made to the long term from Wednesday through next Saturday. An anomalous synoptic pattern over the CONUS will continue through the middle of the week with strong ridging over the west and a deep longwave trough over the east. The main vortex associated with the upper low near the Great Lakes Wednesday lifts up into Canada Thursday into Friday. The axis of the longwave trough on the latest ensemble means remains to our west Thursday into Friday and then may push offshore next Saturday. Surface high pressure gradually builds in from the south and west Wednesday into Thursday. The high should center itself along or just off the eastern seaboard by Friday and could remain in place through Saturday. The forecast is dry through the period with temperatures starting out below normal Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 50s during the day. Lows at night will be in the middle to upper 30s inland and lower and middle 40s most elsewhere. At least patchy frost development is possible each night across the interior, especially if winds decouple. The cyclonic flow aloft should also promote some stratocu development on Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoon. Temperatures then moderate back to normal levels on Friday and then possibly slightly above normal next Saturday. NBM temperatures for the this period look reasonable each day. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front moves east of the terminals early this morning before another weak high builds into the region into the afternoon. Another frontal system approaches tonight into Monday morning. Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR ceilings 09-12z Monday, but more likely after 12z. A light NW-NNW flow is expected behind the cold front passage The winds back to the W-WSW in the afternoon. Wind speeds should remain below 10 kt. Winds become light and variable this tonight, but should begin increasing out of the S early Monday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of winds shift to the W-WSW early this afternoon may be off by 1 to 2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday-Monday night...MVFR conditions possible. Showers possible, especially NYC metros on east. Isolated thunderstorm possible east of NYC metros Monday night. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt each afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected today and tonight as the gradient remains fairly weak. SCA conditions return for Monday thru early Tuesday but for Monday night and early Tuesday, the high SCA ocean seas are forecast to be mainly between Moriches Inlet and Montauk Point. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all the waters for Tuesday night. SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet Wednesday into Wednesday night due to lingering 5 ft seas and marginal SCA gusts. Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels Wednesday through Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DS NEAR TERM...BC/JT SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/DS HYDROLOGY...BC/DS