191 
FXUS64 KOUN 161133
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Cold front will continue to shift south through southern Oklahoma 
into north Texas this morning as the first of a couple of cooler 
airmasses overspreads the southern Plains. Still appears that there 
will be a good chance of rain and a few thunderstorms throughout the 
day today across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Instability will 
be rather limited and no severe weather is anticipated, however some 
isolated heavy rainfall will be possible.

Along with the rain chances shifting south, much cooler temperatures 
are expected as the cooler air filters south behind the cold front. 
Afternoon temperatures will top out in 60s and lower 70s.

Some lingering showers will continue across western north Texas 
Sunday night, otherwise cooler and drier conditions expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

A second reinforcing shot of colder air will slide south through the 
Plains on Monday and Monday night. This will set the stage for the 
coolest/coldest temperatures of this fall season. Much of the area 
will drop into the 30s by Tuesday morning with the possibility of a 
light freeze across north central Oklahoma. Daytime temps may 
struggle to warm as well with highs only in the 50s across much of 
the area. As the high settles south over eastern Oklahoma Wednesday 
morning some areas may again see freezing temperatures from portions 
of northern into eastern and southeast Oklahoma. Farther west 
temperatures expected to remain above freezing and the drier air in 
place may limit the frost potential. Although models are trending 
colder during this time frame, so will need to watch this closely 
as freeze headlines will likely be needed.

As high shifts east Wednesday into Thursday a warm up is expected as 
south winds return. Although models continue to bring a weak 
boundary south through the area Thursday, but the airmass behind 
this boundary will be coming off the high Plains. The downslope 
component should actually bring warmer air into the area. South 
winds return quickly however and look to be quite strong Friday. 
This may result in some elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures 
by the weekend back above normal with the possibility of some areas 
approaching 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Showers will continue to be possible today mainly at the western
and southern TAF sites. MVFR ceilings will be common through the
afternoon at KSPS, and possibly for a time at KLAW as well.
Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Hobart OK        MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Wichita Falls TX MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Gage OK          MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Ponca City OK    MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Durant OK        MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01