506 FXUS64 KEWX 161125 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 625 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Warm and humid conditions persist into and through this afternoon prior to the arrival of our first stronger cold front of the Autumn season later this evening. Morning low clouds should start off the day along with possibly some patchy fog for areas mainly near or east of the I-35 corridor. The afternoon should see clouds mix out to partly cloudy skies with scattered daytime cumulus. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 80s across the Hill Country and into the low to mid 90s elsewhere. The southeasterly winds across the area start to feel the influence of the nearing front in the latter half of the afternoon, which will weaken and gradually shift the winds more out of the east to east-southeast. The afternoon trends primarily dry across the region, expect for locations across our northern Hill Country counties, closest to the surface front. Rain and storm chances will ramp up from this evening through the overnight as the surface front slides south across the area. These rain and storm chances will also be enhanced by overlapping upper level support as shortwave energy moves across the region off an upper level low that progresses from the Desert Southwest towards the Texas panhandle. The latest model guidance continue to support that locations along the Rio Grande into the Winter Garden region continue to have the strongest signal for the greatest rainfall along with the highest likelihood for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Latest short term hi-res guidance show thunderstorm activity developing across the higher terrain of Mexico late this afternoon and congealing into a potential mesoscale convective system that then advances across the Rio Grande later this evening into the overnight. While the advancing cold front will help to undercut surface instability, elevated instability and shear will remain enough to support some stronger storms that will be capable of small to marginally severe sized hail and strong winds. Latest Day 1 convective outlook from the SPC highlights a marginal risk across our western most counties. Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible into and through Monday as more pieces of upper level energy moves across the region and with the passage of the elevated 850 mb front. Additional strong to marginally severe storms are possible in association with these rounds and the Day 2 convective outlook from SPC included a marginal risk across our southern counties along and south of US highway 90. The heavy rain across our western counties could also lead to some concern for possible flooding as a result of the potential for multiple rounds and/or thunderstorm training. The 00Z 48 hr QPF HREF probability matched mean guidance shows a potential swath of 1.5 to 3.5 inches for areas along the Rio Grande and into the Winter Garden region with possibly some locally higher amounts. WPC has highlighted the Rio Grande and the Winter Garden region under a marginal to slight risk on the day 1 excessive rainfall outlook and under a marginal risk on the day 2 excessive rainfall outlook. Flooding is not much of a concern outside this area given much lower rainfall amounts along with the ongoing drought conditions. A much cooler airmass will also advect into the region behind the front as well where locations could see the highs for Monday occur at midnight or remain rather steady into the afternoon. Strongest cold air advection doesn't look to arrive until around or just after midday with the development of stronger northeasterly winds behind the passage of the elevated 850 mb front. Many should be in the low to mid 60s by late Monday afternoon while portions of the Hill Country fall into the mid to upper 50s under overcast skies. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The upper level trough over the Southern Plains on Monday gets stretched and absorbed into the deep upper level trough over the eastern states Monday night into Tuesday. Forcing wanes and a drier lower level airmass filtering into our area gradually ends the showers and thunderstorms from northeast to southwest by midday on Tuesday. Mid level clouds lingering into the afternoon, along with cold advection keep high temperatures well below average on Tuesday. Surface high pressure and a dry airmass continue mid week, then drift off to the east late week into next weekend. Efficient radiational cooling will result in quite chilly low temperatures Tuesday night through Thursday night. Would not be surprised to have one or two of the usually colder low lying and wind sheltered spots approach or reach freezing around sunrise Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Well below average temperatures mid week warm to above average by next weekend. Lower level moisture returns late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Similar to yesterday morning, MVFR to IFR cigs have set in at all terminals. OVC009/IFR has been reported at SSF over the last couple of observation cycles, with all other aerodromes reporting BKN-OVC cigs between FL010 and FL015. Low clouds should mix out by mid to late morning at the I-35 terminals and by early afternoon at DRT. A cold front will approach from the north later today/tonight, bringing chances for SHRA and TSRA at all fields. This continues to be accounted for in the 12Z forecast. Best chances will be overnight tonight into early Monday morning, though an isolated storm can't be ruled out through the early evening at AUS and DRT as the boundary approaches the region. Have thus continued the PROB30 group at each field, and will refine if/when forecast confidence becomes higher. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 65 69 54 / 10 60 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 65 69 53 / 10 50 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 67 71 55 / 10 60 60 40 Burnet Muni Airport 87 60 65 51 / 30 70 70 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 68 70 56 / 10 90 80 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 62 66 52 / 20 70 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 92 70 72 55 / 0 60 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 67 70 53 / 10 50 60 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 67 74 54 / 10 50 50 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 69 71 55 / 0 60 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 93 70 73 57 / 0 50 60 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...04 Aviation...Quigley