733 
FXUS64 KLUB 161124
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

The quasi-stationary boundary located along a line from Muleshoe to 
near Palo Duro Canyon to Clarendon as of 2 AM will start to once 
again push south early this morning thanks to outflow boundaries 
out of the Texas Panhandle and southwest Oklahoma. As this "cold" 
front pushes south, precipitation coverage should start to 
increase. This will result in a rather cool day with high 
temperatures in the 50s expected over much of the area, reaching 
into the 60s over our southern zones. With the lack of strong
insolation this afternoon, CAPE values will only get up to 
300-500 J/kg. These values are expected to decrease through the 
day, leading to very isolated thunderstorms with more widespread 
showers. As the upper low, located near the SE Cal / SW AZ border 
as of 3 AM, begins its trek towards the region, large-scale ascent
will begin to increase. This increase in ascent will result in an
additional boost in precipitation coverage over the forecast 
area. With PWAT values nearing the daily max, increasing ascent 
causing the potential for heavier rain, and the potential for 
multiple rounds of showers to move over the same area, localized 
flooding will be possible. This is especially true for areas of 
the southern South Plains that have received significant rain over
the past few weeks, resulting in the soil becoming nearly 
saturated. GKendrick

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Forecast thinking remains on track this morning with very few 
changes to the long term forecast. By Monday morning the 
aforementioned low will be centered over New Mexico with ongoing 
showers across mainly our southern and western zones. This low will 
begin to be absorbed by the broader troughing located over the 
eastern half of the CONUS during the day while ridging remains in 
place across the western half of the CONUS. Until the low moves east 
of the forecast area, which is expected by Tuesday morning, rain 
showers will continue across the forecast area. But with 
lessening upper-level dynamics and moisture, both coverage and 
intensity should wane through the day. This cloud cover and 
precipitation will keep temperatures well below average once again
with high temperatures ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 
60s on Monday. 

Upper-level ridging will remain in place over the western CONUS 
through about Thursday. This will place the forecast area under 
northwest flow aloft, allowing temperatures to moderate through the 
week with dry conditions prevailing. By Friday, troughing will 
begin to strengthen across the western CONUS with several 
shortwaves expected to move southeast towards the forecast area. 
This should allow for lee surface cyclone development late in the 
week and into the weekend bringing westerly to southwesterly winds
back to the forecast area and hence a bump up in high 
temperatures back into the 70s and 80s. Dry air will remain over 
the forecast area through next weekend hence the long term 
forecast remains dry at this time. There continues to be 
uncertainty with a low off the California coast that is expected 
to move across the Desert Southwest towards our area but guidance 
has delayed this quite a bit compared to previous runs. Now this
feature is not expected to possibly play a role in our weather 
until after the weekend. /WI 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Rain coverage will increase throughout the day at all terminals. 
CIGS should remain near VFR/MVFR criteria; however, there will be 
periods of IFR. Especially if a heavy shower moves near or over a 
terminal. Showers will begin to decrease from east to west late 
tonight. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...10