905 FXUS64 KBMX 161116 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 616 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 119 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022 A frontal boundary remains to our north. It has actually lifted northward over the past few hours as a warm front with a surface low in western Oklahoma. The low will swing eastward through the morning and be near the Missouri Bootheel by midday. A secondary front will be sliding southward quickly this morning as well, and should merge with this first front around the same time. The stronger front will then begin to move southward this afternoon and move into northern portions of Central Alabama around Midnight. Isolated to scattered showers and a few embedded storms will be possible in the northwest late afternoon and then slide south and east through the evening. Looks like the best coverage will be in the north and northeast after sunset through Midnight ahead of the front. Activity will diminish in coverage after Midnight, but a stray shower can not be ruled out overnight. Isolated showers and perhaps a storm will be possible in the southern half of the area through midday, and then southeast through Monday afternoon, or until the upper level boundary works out of the region. Highs will be in the 80s today, with lows tonight into Monday morning in the 50s to low 60s. A stark difference will be in place on Monday with highs in the 60s and low low 70s north of I-20, low to mid 70s to the I-85 corridor and upper 70s to a few near 80s in the southeast. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 249 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022 A highly amplified/blocky pattern will remain in place for the first half of the period. High-amplitude ridges will be over Greenland and the western CONUS with an embedded anticyclone over the northern Rockies. A deep trough will extend from the North Pole down through the eastern CONUS, with a 528 decameter low near the eastern Great Lakes. Breezy northerly winds will be in place at the surface between a 1034mb high centered over the Northern Plains and low pressure centered over Ontario and Quebec. This will result in strong cold air advection as 850mb temperatures fall into the 0.5 percentile for this time of year, or the 0 to -4C range. Winds should prevent frost formation Monday night, but the advection should be sufficient for a light freeze in some locations along the Highway 278 corridor by Tuesday morning. A freeze watch for Monday night will probably be needed for some of these locations in later updates. Daily record low maximum temperatures will be in jeopardy on Tuesday with the winds making it feel even cooler. Despite the cool temperatures, dew points in the teens associated with the modified Arctic air mass will cause RH values to fall below 25 percent for a few hours. Winds stay a couple mph below red flag warning criteria, but fire danger will still be elevated. Winds remain up through the evening hours Tuesday night, but should become light by Wednesday morning as high pressure approaches. With a very dry air mass, a freeze is likely across the northern half of the area, as well as further south in the Black Belt region, with some 20s in the typically colder northern locations. Frost will also be likely wherever winds become calm. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday but still well below normal. The ridge axis will be overhead Wednesday night, with calm winds and ideal radiational cooling conditions. Only possible fly in the ointment would be any high clouds from a shortwave in northwest flow aloft, but at this time do not expect this to have an impact on temperatures. A freeze and frost are likely across much of the area, with lows in the 20s in the north and other typically cooler locations. Record lows will be very much in jeopardy. Temperatures begin to moderate on Thursday as winds take on a westerly component due to a surface trough over the Ohio Valley, but still remain below normal. Lows will be milder Thursday night, but with light winds some areas of frost will still be possible. Lows could reach freezing again in some of the northeastern cooler valleys, but the growing season will have ended up there by then. A pattern change will be in progress by the end of the period as a North Pacific jet eventually induces troughing over the western and central CONUS, but there are some model differences further east regarding if an upper low closes off somewhere near the Southeast Atlantic coast. Either way, temperatures trend warmer through the end of the period with continued dry conditions. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022 Overall VFR conditions conditions for the next 24 hours. A front may bring some showers and storms to the northeast after 00z. Included VCSH at BHM after 1z. Better chances at ANB and ASN so included a prob30 here for showers after 1z as well. A storm can not be ruled out, but chances remain low at this time to include in the set of TAFS. Most activity will be south of the northern sites after 7 to 8z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will be in the 28 to 35 percent range this afternoon for areas along and southeast of I-59, with southwesterly 20ft winds remaining under 10 mph. A cold front moves through tonight and tomorrow with a slight chance of showers most areas, except for the northeast counties where there will be a bit more coverage of showers and a couple thunderstorms. RH values fall into the 35 to 40 percent range north of I-20 on Monday across the north. A cool and very dry air mass moves in by Tuesday with RH values less than 25 percent for a few hours areawide and northwesterly 20ft winds between 10 and 13 mph. && .CLIMATE... Record "cool high" temperatures for October 18: Birmingham: 55 (1955) Tuscaloosa: 58 (1966) Anniston: 54 (1955) Montgomery: 60 (2009) Record lows for October 19: Birmingham: 29 (1948) Tuscaloosa: 28 (1948) Anniston: 30 (1948) Montgomery: 34 (1948) Record lows for October 20: Birmingham: 32 (1964,1913) Tuscaloosa: 32 (1989,1948) Anniston: 29 (1948) Montgomery: 32 (1989) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 56 71 34 / 10 40 10 0 Anniston 84 57 72 36 / 0 30 10 0 Birmingham 84 59 71 38 / 10 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 84 60 73 40 / 0 20 10 0 Calera 84 59 73 40 / 0 20 10 0 Auburn 84 61 77 42 / 0 10 20 0 Montgomery 87 61 78 43 / 0 10 20 0 Troy 87 61 79 44 / 0 10 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...16