407 FXUS64 KSHV 161113 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 613 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Surface analysis from this morning is showing a stationary frontal boundary stretching from central Oklahoma eastward into the southern Kentucky. A secondary front resides to the north with the leading edge near the Nebraska/Kansas border. National mosaic radar imagery is showing showers and thunderstorms along the stationary front from central and southern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas this morning. This activity will eventually continue to push into our area through the rest of the night and into the morning hours. Where will it go though, that is the question of the morning. Short range HREF members are showing that this mornings activity will continue to push into our region into the morning and afternoon hours. That being said, they are also indicating that the axis of "heaviest" rainfall will move through our east Texas counties with only some light rain possible for northwest Louisiana and possibly even southwest Arkansas. NBM has also picked up on this idea that the best chances will be for our east Texas counties through the day today. Temperatures today will range from the lower 70s across our northern zones, where the more significant cloud cover and rainfall will be, to the mid 80s across our far southern zones. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 50s to mid 60s, again with the cooler temperatures to the north and "warmer" ones to the south. For Monday, cooler air will start to filter into the area and settle in, with afternoon highs only expected to reach the mid 60s across our northern zones to the mid 70s across our southern zones. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 We will continue dealing with cold air advection across the entire Four State Region Monday Night through the middle of the upcoming work week before temperatures rebound quickly to end the week. A large upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Lakes with upper ridging noted across the Pacific Northwest. This will result in northwest flow aloft across our region with this flow not changing through much of next week. At the surface, post frontal sfc ridge will remain northwest of our region Monday Night through Tuesday but it's not until Tuesday Night that winds will likely be light enough to introduce freezing temperatures to our northern and northeast half. Thus, a freeze warning will likely become necessary for at least the northern half of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and perhaps, far Northeast Louisiana given ample radiational cooling conditions expected Tuesday Night. Elsewhere, frost will be a good bet with low temperatures near and south of the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana mostly in the middle 30s. The sfc ridge moves south and east of our region Wednesday Night and thus, we should begin seeing a return to light southerly winds during this time with the coldest temperatures across our far eastern and southeast zones. It's that warming southwest wind Thursday through next weekend that will transition our region from the chilly temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, to temperatures near normal for Thursday and back to above normal temperatures for Friday and through the weekend. Low level returning moisture will likely not begin until the very end of the work week but it does not appear significant enough with the lack of upper forcing to generate any precipitation across our region, thus, the long term forecast remains dry. 13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 For the 16/12z TAFs...Radar imagery is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms moving through northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and portions of southwest Arkansas. Should see some changes to KTXK shortly as they will be the first terminals impacted. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through the region through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon hours. Have mention of at least VCTS in for most terminals for today. Have been seeing some MVFR to occasional IFR cigs across portions of the area, which will only continue to deteriorate under the increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 62 73 47 / 40 40 20 0 MLU 84 62 73 44 / 10 30 10 0 DEQ 75 52 71 38 / 90 20 0 0 TXK 74 59 71 44 / 80 30 10 0 ELD 76 55 69 40 / 40 30 10 0 TYR 79 62 71 47 / 60 50 30 0 GGG 80 61 71 45 / 50 40 20 0 LFK 87 64 74 49 / 20 40 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...33