957 FXUS66 KOTX 161110 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 410 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS.... Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through a large chunk of the upcoming week. Some breezy conditions linger over the portions of north Idaho and the Columbia Basin today. The ridge is forecast to breakdown Friday into next weekend. Rain and high elevation snow chances increase by late next week, with temperatures cooling to values closer to or slightly below normal by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern, deflecting any systems away from the area or breaking them apart before they have a chance to come into the region. This will mean dry and warm conditions, with highs about 10-15 degrees above normal. Skies will be clear to mostly clear, with periodic increasing in high clouds. Some smoke/haze will be mixed in at times, especially near the Cascades with ongoing wildfires. Breezy conditions linger around the Upper Columbia Basin/Palouse and down through the Purcell Trench today and to a lesser extent Monday. Patchy frost will be found in overnight/early morning hours in the sheltered valleys of NE WA and N ID. However afternoon temperatures will be in the 70s for many spots and some locations could tie/break the record for most day at 70 degrees or warmer in October. As of yesterday (Saturday) Spokane has had 15 days at 70 or above; the record is 17 days set back in 1944. With that said, the end of the 70 degree days is in sight. Thursday night to Saturday: the ridge breaks down with a moist jet stream moving into the area and ushering in a storm system from the Gulf of AK. Clouds start to increase Thursday night. Limited precipitation chances come to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday, then expand and increase throughout the region Friday evening into Saturday. Precise timing may change, but high chance to likely PoPs are currently in the forecast for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow levels are currently forecast to drop to between 4.5-6kft by Saturday morning and to around 4 to 4.5kft by Saturday evening (and potentially as low as 3kft by Sunday morning). So that means the rain will also come with potential for some mountain snow, with the lowest snow levels near the Cascades and Canadian border. The system will also come with breezy conditions. Temperatures are forecast to drop toward normal or slightly below toward next weekend. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details as more information comes in and model agreement increases. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: High pressure will dominate the weather, with dry and primarily VFR conditions. Smoke/haze from regional wildfires and burns will continue to provide some reductions in visibility especially closer to the Cascades and northern airports, with local MVFR visibility possible near EAT in morning. Some low-grade breezy conditions will linger through the daylight hours around the Columbia Basin and from near SZT to COE. /Cote' && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 75 42 75 42 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 74 41 73 41 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 74 41 75 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 77 46 76 45 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 76 33 75 33 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 69 38 69 37 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 74 50 75 49 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 77 40 76 38 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 75 49 75 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 78 44 76 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$