974 FXUS62 KKEY 160857 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 457 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The rainy season is lingering across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. During the last 24 hours, most Keys island communities received measurable rainfall, with some localized areas receiving over an inch of rain. A maritime tropical air mass persists at the surface with a deep layer of moisture-rich air above. Currently, air temperatures in Keys island communities range from the lower 80s to the upper 70s where rain is falling. Dewpoint temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s, with light northeast to east breezes. Latest Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity images show scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the service area, moving west- southwestward. An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over Mexico, with a large-scale upper trough over the western North Atlantic. At the surface, a high pressure cell was centered over Georgia, with low-level northeast to east flow across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. A narrow swath of low-level moisture convergence analyzed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Keys likely is enhancing precipitation coverage early this morning. We have increased rain chances for today and tonight given recent trends in both observations and model output and the fact that the current synoptic and thermodynamic situation is not likely to change much in the next 18-24 hours. Thereafter, a somewhat drier period is expected Monday and Tuesday as gradient flow collapses along the southwestern flank of a weakening high cell. A large- scale digging midlatitude trough and expanding region of deep cyclonic flow will develop over the eastern United States Tuesday and Tuesday night, with an associated cold front pushing southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, approaching the Keys and adjacent coastal waters Tuesday night, and likely moving through the service area on Wednesday. Elevated rain and thunder chances are expected until the front pushes through later on Wednesday, with a short-lived northerly wind surge Wednesday and Thursday. The front probably very well may die over or just east or south of the Straits of Florida before low-level flow quickly veers late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters zones. A high pressure system centered over the southeastern United States today will shift eastward and weaken tonight through Monday. As a result, moderate breezes today and tonight will diminish, and become light by Monday afternoon or evening. Thereafter, a weakening cold front will approach the Florida Keys and adjacent waters Tuesday night, most likely moving through the Keys with a northerly wind shift on Wednesday. A period of fresh northerly breezes seems likely in some areas between Wednesday and Thursday. The disintegrating front will become stationary over the Straits of Florida toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. However, a wetter than normal weather pattern continues to linger across the area. As a result, there is a good chance for a few rounds of sub MVFR conditions. Away from convective activity, surface winds will be out of the east northeast to east at around 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Florida Keys weather history, a daily record low temperature of 66F was recorded in Key West (1889), and a daily record low temperature of 63F degrees was recorded in Marathon (1955). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 77 85 78 / 60 50 50 30 Marathon 86 77 87 77 / 60 40 50 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Kasper Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest