004 
FXUS64 KHUN 160853
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
353 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

A cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms is entering 
northwest AL, but may struggle to push much further east initially
due to dry and stable low levels east of its path. This morning, 
most of the precipitation will remain to the immediate north and 
northwest of our forecast area nearer to the frontal boundary 
draped over TN. However, with time, expect showers and a few 
thunderstorms to sag southeast into southern middle TN and far 
north AL this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to 
near 80 for highs due to the cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night) 
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Precipitation will shift east of the area late this evening, as
the cold front pushes southeast and upper level support wanes.
Much cooler and drier air will advect into the region Monday with
highs in the 60s. Strong cold advection will persist Monday night
into Tuesday, with temperatures dipping into the upper 20s in
southern middle TN and lower 30s. Have hoisted a Freeze Watch in
our TN counties. Deep layer cold northerly flow will continue 
through Wednesday as well as a high amplitude trough digging into 
the eastern CONUS. A hard freeze is likely for some areas on 
Wednesday morning, with lows in the middle 20s to upper 20s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Unseasonably cold/dry air will remain entrenched across the mid TN
Valley heading into mid week, as a large dome of high pressure out 
of the Plains states builds eastward into much of the region. 
Freezing conditions are once again expected Thu morning, before a 
gradual warming trend develops by the end the work week, with the 
sfc highs drifting further east into the southern Atlantic Coast. 
Afternoon highs will climb more into the seasonal lower/mid 70s with 
the onset of the weekend period, while overnight lows return to the 
lower/mid 40s early Sat. This overall pattern will also maintain 
mostly sunny/clear skies into the first half of the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

VFR conditions will continue overnight, although bkn-ovc layers 
of As/Cs debris clouds will persist across the terminals from 
convection to our WNW. Models suggest that a few SHRA and perhaps 
an elevated TSRA may impact MSL/8-12Z and HSV/10-14Z, before the 
initiating upper-lvl wave shifts east-northeastward, but due to 
uncertainties regarding coverage this has been covered with VCSH. 
A cold front is predicted to track southeastward through the 
region late in the TAF period, with lower clouds and perhaps an 
additional round of SHRA possible Sunday evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for 
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...70