246 FXUS64 KSJT 160832 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Rainfall and cooler temperatures on the way... A cold front will be moving south across the area today, reaching the Abilene area around mid morning, the Concho Valley and Heartland by early afternoon and the I-10 corridor by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a closed upper low currently over southern Arizona, will track eastward across New Mexico and into West Texas as it weakens Sunday night into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today as the front moves south across the area. A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon ahead of the front, primarily south and west of a Mertzon to Junction line, where instability and shear will be supportive of stronger updrafts. The main threat will be large hail and strong wind gusts but the overall threat should be rather low. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 80s across far southern sections prior to frontal passage. Temperatures will fall behind the front this afternoon and by sunset will range from the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere. Precipitation chances will remain high tonight into Monday morning as upper level support increases with the approaching system. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected, with the potential for heavy rainfall, especially across western portions of the Concho Valley and the northern Edwards Plateau. Rainfall amounts between 1.50 and 2 inches is expected across this area, with locally higher amounts possible. This may result in some minor flooding issues, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Precipitation will be decreasing from north to south Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with dry weather returning for the overnight period. Temperatures on Monday will be well below normal, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 60s. Tuesday through Friday will be dry, with below normal temperatures through mid week, warming to near normal by the end of the week. Tuesday night should be the coldest night of the week, as ideal radiational cooling takes place under mostly clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 MVFR ceilings expected to develop across the southern terminals around daybreak and linger through the morning hours. A cold front will move through the area tomorrow, with FROPA at KABI around 14Z, KSJT around 19Z and the far southern terminals around 23Z to 01Z. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase late this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as an upper level storm system approaches from the west. Widespread MVFR and some IFR ceilings will prevail for the overnight period, with SHRA/TS persisting into Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 54 61 46 63 / 90 70 10 0 San Angelo 54 63 48 66 / 90 90 20 0 Junction 56 68 47 65 / 80 90 30 0 Brownwood 55 64 47 65 / 90 80 10 0 Sweetwater 53 60 47 64 / 90 70 10 0 Ozona 56 63 48 64 / 90 90 30 0 Brady 56 62 48 63 / 90 90 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24