940 FXUS62 KCAE 160823 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 423 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will reside over the area today. Temperatures will be cool in the morning but warm into 80s by afternoon. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening. A much colder air mass settles over the region for mid week with frost and freeze concerns on Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... Today: Broad upper trough remains over the Great Lakes region with shortwave energy diving south into the Upper Midwest evident on WV imagery. This shortwave will drive a cold front towards the region by tonight. For today, some morning high clouds may slow the initial rise of temperatures but the higher clouds should shift north of the area through the morning hours and expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. The combination of low level southwesterly flow and 850mb temps around +15C with some warm advection will support continued above normal temperatures with highs expected in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight: Atmospheric moisture will be increasing across the region with PWATs rising to around 1 inch by late tonight as southwesterly flow aloft persists ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and front. Cannot rule out isolated showers across the northern Midlands during the evening and overnight hours, although much of the moisture is limited to the mid/high levels with forecast soundings showing significant dry air in the lower layers that would have to be overcome to provide measurable precipitation. Increasing and lowering cloud cover along with some boundary layer wind should limit radiational cooling and expect lows to be above normal in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will move through the forecast area on Monday as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Moisture will increase slightly ahead of the front with PWAT values exceeding 1 inch. Surface heating, weak moisture advection and convergence near the front may lead to a few showers Monday afternoon. Strong deep layer shear but very limited instability may keep convection relatively short lived and limits the threat of thunderstorms. Roughly 70 percent or more of the SREF members keep surface based CAPE values below 500 J/kg. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be most likely in the eastern Midlands during the afternoon but overall chances are low. Highs will be in the low 80s Monday with cooler dryer air pushing in behind the front overnight. Expect lows in the 40s with winds staying up through the night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An anomalously strong upper level trough will remain over the eastern US for much of the long term. Heights are likely to approach the NAEFS climatological first percentile. This pattern of a strong upper low and a dry, cold airmass at the surface supports a dry forecast with well below normal temperatures. Blended guidance continues to show near record cold highs and lows for Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s on those days. There is also some potential for frost Tuesday night with a better chance Wednesday night due to lighter winds. Temperatures will moderate into the weekend to near normal with some moisture returning to the area as well. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally expecting VFR conditions through the 24hr forecast period. Still cannot rule out possible brief vsby restrictions in fog at prone AGS/OGB this morning. Otherwise, some increasing high clouds will move over the region by morning and continue through the day. Near calm winds will pick up from the southwest to around 5 to 8 knots after 15z before diminishing again around sunset. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A slight chance of showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, Monday afternoon and early evening with a cold frontal passage. Breezy conditions possible Monday afternoon/Monday night into early Tuesday. No significant impacts to aviation expected Wed/Thu. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$