573 FXUS61 KALY 160815 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 415 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for dry weather today, with a mostly sunny sky and seasonable temperatures. As a frontal boundary approaches, clouds will increase tonight and some showers are expected for Monday. Some showers may linger into Monday night or early Tuesday, with cooler and drier conditions expected for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 415 AM EDT...Broad upper level trough extends all the way from the Upper Midwest eastward to the Northeastern US. The core of the upper level trough continues to be located just north of the Great Lakes over Ontario. At the surface, an occluded front crossed the region early in the overnight and is now east of the region over eastern New England. This front crossed the area with no precip and little cloud cover, but allowed for a subtle shift in the wind direction. While the wind stayed up earlier in the overnight hours, the winds are now calm, as an area of high pressure approaches the area from central New York. With the high pressure area now overhead, winds have become calm across the region. There are a few patches of thin high clouds around, otherwise, skies are completely clear. IR satellite imagery is beginning to show the formation of some fog, mainly across the Adirondacks and within the CT River Valley of southern VT. Some patchy fog is expected in sheltered valley areas through daybreak, although it won't be as dense or as widespread as Saturday morning. Any fog should be dissipating between daybreak and 9 AM. High pressure will be shifting north and east through the day, but will remain close enough to keep dry weather in place through the day. There could be some passing clouds through the day, but sky cover will generally range from partly to mostly sunny. Temps aloft are a little cooler than yesterday as the upper level trough continues to approach, with 850 hpa temps now down to +3 to +6 C. Daytime temps should reach the mid 50s to mid 60s, which is fairly seasonable for mid October. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The large upper level trough will be starting to dive back southward for tonight as a strong upper level disturbance on the western side of the trough dives southward across Canada. The upper level low will be closing off over the Great Lakes for Monday. As this occurs, a slow moving area of low pressure will be deepening over the Great Lakes with an occluded front headed towards the area for Monday. Clouds will be increasing for tonight as a warm front starts lifting towards the area from the south. Most of the night will be dry, but some showers can't be ruled out towards daybreak for western and southern areas. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A few rounds of showers are expected on Monday as the frontal system impacts the region. First, the storm's warm front will be lifting northward on Monday morning. Moisture will be surging northward out of the mid Atlantic States and some showers will be lifting northeast from NJ/NYC area towards far eastern NY, as well as western and southern New England. In addition, some showers will be spreading eastward from Lake Ontario towards northern parts of the area as well. Behind this initial batch of showers, some additional showers are expected on Monday afternoon into the evening, as the cold/occluded front crosses from west to east. Some guidance suggests there could be some small amounts of elevated instability ahead of the boundary, but not enough confidence for thunder in our area just yet (better chance may be across eastern New England), so won't include any mention of thunder in the forecast at this time. With the clouds and showers, temps will be held down somewhat, but should still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area. The front will be slowing down and stalling as it reaches into New England, as a wave of low pressure will be developing along the boundary for Monday night into Tuesday. This could continue the chance for rain across far eastern areas (western New England) for Monday night into early Tuesday. Will keep some high CHC POPs for eastern areas to account for this possibility, although it may wind up being just east of the area that sees the better potential for a prolonged steadier rainfall. Otherwise, some wrap around showers will be possible for northern areas for Monday night into Tuesday. The large upper level trough will be slowly drifting eastward and should be located close to Lake Huron early on Thursday, reaching close to north of Lake Ontario by late in the day. As mentioned, northern and eastern area have the better chance for showers on Tuesday (mostly early in the day), with clearing expected from the Mohawk Valley on southward by Tuesday afternoon. With much cooler temps in place aloft, highs on Tuesday will be noticeably cooler, with max temps only in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area. A chilly night is expected on Tuesday night thanks to the upper level trough overhead. 850 hpa temps will be down to around -4 C. There will be some lake effect precip ongoing, but most of this will be located west of the region over western and central NY. Across our area, the combination of only limited clouds around and just a light breeze should allow for it to radiate fairly well. Temps will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the entire area. Areas where the growing season is still ongoing (Hudson Valley and NW CT) may see some frost/freeze conditions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The amplified, longwave mid and upper level troughing pattern persists as the long term period begins. The anomalously strong cut- off low situated in southeast Canada, just overhead and northeast of the Great Lakes region, continues to fuel the deepening of its associated, anomalously strong trough that has engulfed the entire east CONUS. Though the beginning of the extended forecast term begins with the dominance of cold and somewhat wet influences of the low pressure located upstream, the end of the period will finally see the clearance of this system, yielding a dry, warm air advected into the region from surface high pressure to the south and weak upper level ridging overhead. By Wednesday morning, the main cold front associated with this upper level system will have moved eastward out of the forecast area, taking with it the main precipitation axis. Behind it, the cut-off low continues to circulate overhead of the Great Lakes region and slowly push eastward, forcing the cold sector closer towards the region. As the cold sector draws near, another smaller and less organized precipitation axis will form along Lake Ontario. Here, 850 mb temperatures of -3C to -5C interact with the warmer lake surface temperatures of near 15C to form lake effect rain/snow showers that will likely track into the region Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Areas northwest of Albany (Herkimer and Hamilton counties) are likely to be affected, while the greater portion of the region is expected to remain dry. Because low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 30s early Thursday morning in the Adirondacks, the area likely to see the most showers, it is possible that the lake effect showers could be rain or snow. This also depends on the timing of the initiation and dissipation of showers. Currently, models show the heavier concentration of showers occurring Wednesday afternoon. With temperatures expected to be in the mid to low 40s in the Adirondacks, it is likely that rain will be the main form of precipitation. However, because models show precipitation continuing into early Thursday morning, it is possible that the rain could turn into snow as temperatures drop to near and just below freezing. As the northwestern portion of the region experiences the aforementioned lake effect precipitation Wednesday into Thursday, surface high pressure begins to build into the region, keeping the areas south of Herkimer and Hamilton counties dry. Showers look to subside by 12z Thursday, as the cut-off low begins to move north, further into eastern Canada. Simultaneously, the upper-level trough begins to weaken, causing mid and upper level heights to rise. By Friday, the surface high pressure to the south begins to build further into the region, allowing. Heights continue to rise Friday into Saturday ahead of a new, warmer airmass that encompasses the region just in time for the weekend. Temperatures during this period will start off below normal and progressively become warmer, nearing normal by the end. Wednesday and Thursday's highs will range in the low to mid 50s with pockets of 40s in higher terrain areas. Friday looks to start the warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 50s to near 60 throughout the river valleys with upper 40s to low 50s at higher elevations. Saturday and Sunday will feature high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with pockets of upper 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...As of AM, all terminals are experiencing VFR conditions with limited cloud cover and light westerly winds of magnitudes less than 10 kt. VFR conditions are expected to be maintained throughout the TAF period until 06z Monday, though KGFL could enter into IFR conditions for a short time should cloud cover remain clear to relatively low and winds reduce to calm or near calm. A cold front has passed through the region over the last couple of hours, causing winds to shift to out of the west. Some mid and low clouds have and are continuing to develop as a result of the front, but cloud cover is expected to remain on the order of FEW-BKN throughout the course of the morning until after sunrise. There is a bit of uncertainty surrounding cloud cover during this TAF cycle. Models seem to be divided in their guidance for cloud cover with the GFS being a bit more aggressive than the NAM and NAM 3km. However, the trend at KGFL/KALB/KPSF seems to be an increase in cloud cover until after around 20z when a decrease can start to be seen. KPOU on the other hand is expected to observe an increase in cloud cover from FEW to BKN and then maintaining that coverage for much of the TAF period. KPSF looks to get the cloudiest, having a period of OVC between 16z and 21z. At the time of TAF issuance, KGFL is showing an observation of SKC for cloud cover. Because there is some uncertainty surrounding when clouds are expected to increase, there is a possibility that KGFL could experience a brief reduction in visibility due to fog. This will be especially possible should winds reduce in magnitude as they are predicted to at this time. To account for this possibility, a TEMPO group has been added to the KGFL TAF between 11z and 14z when fog is most probable to be seen should the aforementioned conditions be fulfilled. Winds are expected to be light and variable and light and out of the west/northwest through 06z Monday. Wind magnitude is not expected to exceed 5kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Gant