408 FXUS63 KARX 160804 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 304 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Key Messages: - rain/snow shower chances for west central Wisconsin today and tonight - Unseasonably cool through much of upcoming week with little to no precipitation chances * Today: Cooler, shower chances into central Wisconsin The cold front has pushed completely through the forecast area, but today will be nearly similar to yesterday but cooler. Overnight, there were scattered light showers across the Minnesota Arrowhead into far northwestern Wisconsin as shown on radar and confirmed with surface observations. Further upstream, yet again, there is another short wave trough targeting the region. Satellite water vapor imagery shows wave pushing through southern Manitoba this early morning. Precipitation chances will spread into west central Wisconsin today still being under broad cyclonic upper-level flow. Plenty of cold air advecting into the region will help destabilize the lower atmosphere. By mid afternoon, mixing heights steepen to near 850 mb as depicted in forecast soundings. Wet bulb temperatures holding above freezing supports the main precipitation type as rain during the day with the snow chances not mixing in until this evening. The better chances look to hold northeast of the I-94 corridor where there would be more moisture available. This also agrees with what many of the CAMs show. Although, would not be surprised for showers work further westward into the Mississippi Valley Region similarly to what the 16.05z HRRR guidance suggests. Blustery conditions are expected as the continued cold air reinforcement surges into the region then keeping near surface lapse rates near 8.5-9.5 C/km today and through the overnight hours. Sustained winds in the teens with gusts around 25 mph will end the weekend. * Work Week: Unseasonably cool through much of the week Cooler and slightly windier conditions are expected tomorrow as the surface low edges further off to the east with an increasing pressure gradient to its west. Although the chances are low, some snow showers may brush briefly into northcentral Wisconsin tomorrow with the north/northwesterly flow over the ice-free Lake Superior leading lake enhancement induced showers. Temperatures at 850 mb decrease to anomalously low values (-10 C) with ensemble guidance being in the lowest 0.5th percentile compared to model climatology. Low temperatures tonight through Tuesday night are anticipated to dip well into the 20s. Hardly any precipitation chances across much of the region lasts through the week as surface high pressure edges into the area. Upper- level ridging builds across the western CONUS throughout the week, but towards the end of the week, chances for warmer and more seasonable temperatures to return as weak ridge pushes eastward across the area. This would come ahead of the next system potentially bringing precipitation to the area at the end of next weekend. Not confident that the forecast will continue to keep these chances (~30%) with the many upcoming updates, but just wanted to mention as these next several days preceding this are setting up to be another prolonged period going without receiving a wetting rainfall. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Main taf concern is the potential for MVFR conditions at both taf sites after 12z Sunday. Upper level low over southern Ontario continues to wrap clouds and scattered showers into the region through the taf period. Ceilings are expected to lower into MVFR conditions...2000 to 3000 feet...after 12z Sunday. Ceilings are expected to improve into VFR during the afternoon hours due to daytime heating and remain in VFR through the rest of the taf period. Winds will remain breezy with wind speeds 10 to 20 knots and gust 20 to 25 knots with a couple of brief gust up to 30 knots. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Peters AVIATION...DTJ