566 FXUS61 KCAR 160800 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 400 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area today. An occluded front ahead of a large trough of low pressure in the Midwest will begin to take shape along the east coast tonight into Monday then slowly press into our area Monday night into Tuesday. The front will slowly push east of our region Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by high pressure building to our south on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dense fog developed acrs entire CWA early this morning as clear skies and light winds have allowed radn'l fog to set in. Very low clouds are currently moving thru nwrn zones as of 07z and has briefly disrupted fog per latest microphysics nighttime imagery. This looks to be in line with dwpt front moving into the state fm Canada and may need to cancel advisory early for the northwestern zones as dense fog wanes. Will allow another hour or so to pass to get a better handle on trends. Once the fog dissipates by mid-morning, mostly sunny skies can be expected into the aftn. A weak area of lopres looks to bring an increase in clouds this aftn into evening over interior Downeast before spreading throughout the area tonight. Today and tonight will feature dry weather ahead of the next system bringing more rain to the area early next week. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A very large and deep trough of low pressure will be digging into the Great Lakes on Monday. A couple spokes of energy rounding the bottom of the trough will approach the east coast Monday into Monday night developing an occluded front. Clouds will increase Monday as the occlusion approaches and some showers may begin to push into western areas Monday afternoon. A powerful surge of jet energy swinging beneath the Lakes trough will intensify and consolidate the occlusion over Western New England Monday night as a triple point low forms near southern New England. A cold front will extend south from this triple point off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Subtropical moisture will be pulled north along this front spreading rain into our area Monday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The occlusion will lift to our north on Tuesday as a cold front extends south off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Strong surface frontal convergence will develop along the front between high pressure well to our east and the intense trough to our west. This has the potential to develop a deep and very saturated atmospheric river of subtropical moisture extending from off the southeast coast up into our region. This stream of subtropical moisture along the front will bring rain Tuesday into Tuesday night with some potentially heavy bands of rain into Tuesday night. Flooding could be a concern again depending how long this atmospheric river sets up over our region. The GFS and ECMWF have a corridor of heavy rain over our area Tuesday night shifting east of the area by early Wednesday morning. The new NAM slows the front down causing heavy rain to persist over the region into Wednesday morning. Given how saturated the ground already is, there could be hydrological concerns if this front slows down resulting in prolonged heavy rain into early Wednesday. The occluded front will slowly push east on Wednesday allowing rain to end from west to east. The progression of the front may depend on how strong the high to our east is and how long it holds up the eastern movement of the front. Drier air lifting north behind the front should bring clearing later Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday. This will set the stage for a mostly sunny Thursday. However, some clouds may stray into northwestern areas on Thursday as the big trough to our east weakens and begins to lift out into eastern Canada. High pressure will build south of the area Friday into Saturday bringing sunny to partly cloudy and seasonable weather. Dry weather should persist into Sunday with a moderating trend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR at all terminals expected early this morning. Ocnl VLIFR expected before very slowly improving after 12z. Once fog dissipates unrestricted VFR expected thru the end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: Monday...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR south late. SE wind. Monday night...MVFR lowering to IFR, SE wind. S LLWS. Tuesday...IFR to LIFR. SE wind. S LLWS. Tuesday night...IFR. SE wind. S LLWS Wednesday...IFR or MVFR improving to VFR. SW wind. Wednesday night...VFR except in patchy fog late. Light SW wind. Thursday...VFR. SW wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA continues through 5am this morning as seas on the outer waters will remain near 5ft through this time. Winds and seas will be below SCA through the end of the period. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday into Tuesday night for S winds gusting up to 25 kt Tuesday and seas building up to 6 ft Tuesday night in response to the south wind. && .CLIMATE... 3.20" of rain was observed in Bangor, Maine yesterday. Not only does that break the daily record for 10/15 of 2.05" set in 2005, it ranks as the 2nd wettest October day on record behind only October 8, 2005, when 3.98" was observed. Yesterday ranked as the 20th wettest day on record in Bangor. Weather records in Bangor date back to 1925. Also, a record rainfall of 1.75" was set at Caribou yesterday breaking the old record of 1.32" set in 2011. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCBW radar will be down for a few hours this morning to do some final maintenance checks following the "Service Life Extension Program" (SLEP) maintenance. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001>006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Buster/Bloomer Marine...Buster/Bloomer Climate...CB/Bloomer Equipment...Bloomer