554 FXUS63 KDDC 160705 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 205 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The main forecast challenge will be how far the temperatures will fall into the 30s overnight. Cooler air will be working its way into southwest Kansas over the next 48 hours as a surface high slides slowly east across the Central Plains. Deterministic models were in good agreement with a 24 hour temperature change of -5 to -7C in 850mb temperatures from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday and an 8 to 12F drop in the boundary layer temperatures during the same time frame. Taking this into account it appears that the previous forecast with highs in the 60s still looks on track. This further supports that lows in the 30s will be likely (90%) across southwest and north central Kansas tonight. The coolest temperatures tonight will be located north of Garden City and along the I-70 corridor. In this area, the mercury could drop to around 32 degrees for a few hours. Confidence of this to occur is 50-70% given clear skies and light winds overnight. Will therefore continue with the Freeze watch for the area along and north of a Scott City to Ness City to Hays line late tonight/early Monday morning. Low in the mid-30s will also be possible as far south as the Oklahoma border. There will be a 10-30% for lows to bottom out around 35 degrees along the OK border early Friday morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The potential for freezing temperatures will linger across western Kansas early in the work week but the challenge in the later periods will be how long this cooler air will keep its hold on western Kansas. Ensembles along with all of the deterministic models are in good agreement early in the work week with an upper low crossing the Great Lakes Region. On the west side of this upper low Monday and Tuesday, an upper level trough is forecast to drop south out of central Canada and cross into the Mississippi Valley. This scenario not only favors a slower erosion of the cooler air that had already filtered into southwest Kansas on Sunday but also supports the potential for a reinforcement of cooler/drier air working its way from east to west across Kansas Monday and Tuesday given the temperature trends in the boundary layer and 850mb level from the persistent east/northeasterly flow. As a result, southwest and north central Kansas will likely (70-90%) see lows both on Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning falling back into the low to mid 30s. Also can not rule out some lows bottoming out in the upper 20s north and east of Dodge City. At this time the areas most favorable for these cooler mins Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning (40-50%) will be near and east of a Hays to Larned line given the latest ensembles and NBM 10 to 25th percentile guidance. Given increasing confidence on the colder temperatures early Tuesday morning will go ahead an issue a Freeze Watch for Monday night/Tuesday morning for locations northeast of Dodge City. A late week warming trend can then be expected across western Kansas as an upper level ridge over the western United States begins to work its way east which will allow a northwesterly downslope flow to develop across western Kansas. This developing downslope flow mid to late week will quickly erode the cooler air that was anchored over western Kansas Monday and Tuesday and allow the temperatures to rebound back into the 80s late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A surface ridge will slowly build into western Kansas today. This will result in a northeast wind become more northerly during the day on Sunday. The wind speeds will be at less than 10 knots overnight.These light winds will increase into the 10 to 15 knot range between 15z and 18z Sunday. BUFR soundings indicating an increase in moisture/clouds will occur mid day through early evening in the 4000 to 8000ft AGL level. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 45 68 33 63 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 44 67 32 64 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 45 64 37 65 / 10 20 10 0 LBL 47 67 35 65 / 10 10 10 0 HYS 45 67 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 P28 49 72 38 64 / 20 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for KSZ030- 031-043>045. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert