661 FXUS61 KAKQ 160622 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the area through this evening. A weak cold front remains nearly stationary over the area Sunday with a strong cold front pushing through late Monday with showers and storms possible ahead of the front from late Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Behind the cold front, much cooler, drier air moves in, including the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Tues and Wed nights. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 930 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure remains centered south of the local area, meanwhile a weak cold front is approaching from the west and will likely become stationary over the region tonight. High and mid level clouds move in from the west tonight which will keep lows milder in the lower to mid 50s for most (upper 40s in the far NW Piedmont). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... A weak cold front approaches from the W early Sun morning before becoming nearly stationary over the area Sun into early Mon. A series of shortwaves push through Sun and Sun night allowing for showers (and perhaps a few isolated storms) to form along the stalled front. The best chance for showers will be Sun evening through Sun night. A strong upper level low moves into the Great Lakes Mon, pushing a strong cold front through the area late Mon afternoon through Mon night. Ahead of the cold front, showers are expected to form with perhaps just enough instability and speed shear aloft for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms. Showers and storms move offshore Mon evening/early Mon night with much cooler, drier weather moving in Mon night. Total QPF Sun and Mon of 0.1-0.3" for the N and S thirds of the FA and 0.3-0.75" for the central third along the US-460 corridor. Although lows Mon night may drop into the mid 30s in the far NW Piedmont, the dry air should allow the temp/dew point spread to be 10+ degrees, which combined the cloud cover, precludes frost mention at this time. Much cooler Tues with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most (around 60F SE). Highs in the mid 70s N to upper 70s to near 80F S Sun and upper 60s NW to upper 70s SE Mon. Lows in the mid 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sun night and mid 30s NW to upper 40s SE Mon night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... A deep trough will be located over the eastern half of the U.S. midweek. This trough will send a sfc high pressure south from Canada, and will be centered over the southern Plains, but extend east to the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow for well below average temperatures across the region. Temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be around freezing for many locations away from the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean. The warmer waters will keep temperatures in the 40s near the bay and ocean. Father inland across the VA Piedmont, there is a chance that temperatures could drop into the upper 20s Thursday morning. The trough will lift north late next week and the ridge over the Western U.S. breaks down. High pressure will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeastern U.S. at the same time. This will keep the area dry into the weekend, and will begin to see a slow warming trend. High temperatures will steadily climb each day, from around 60F on Thursday to the low 70s by the weekend. Low temperatures will also climb each with the coldest morning being Thursday morning. Low will be in the 40s inland and 50s at the coast by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... High clouds will be moving in from the west throughout the day on Sunday. Clouds will thicken Sunday evening as rain begins to move in. Mainly VFR through 00z Monday. CIGs are expected to fall to 2,000-4,000 Sunday night. Heavy rain will also be moving across the area. Vis will be lowered in the heaviest on rain cells. Not expected thunderstorms at this time, but there is a slight chance of an isolated storm. Light and variable winds overnight through Sunday afternoon with a general SW component Sunday. Outlook: Cold front will cross the area on Monday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across the S. A period of sub- VFR conditions will be possible Sunday night and Monday with the showers. && .MARINE... As of 115 AM EDT Saturday... Sfc hi pres will remain situated to the S of the local waters...INVOF the coastal Carolinas. A weakening cold front approaches from the WNW today then washes out over the local waters tonight. Winds SSW 5-15 kt starting out may briefing become WNW this morning...OTW...WSW to S winds will avg AOB 10 kt most of today. Waves 1-2 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the W tonight/Mon...SW winds increase to 10-20 kt. That cold front crosses the Mid Atlc region Mon night...to be followed low level CAA and gusty NW winds into Tue afternoon. A secondary cold front crosses the local waters Tue night/Wed morning. At minimum...a SCA will likely be needed for portions of the waters for late Mon night into (possibly) Wed. Waves mainly 1-2 ft in the bay/seas 2-4 ft today-Mon. A bit of an increase in waves/seas Mon night into Wed due to NW winds and CAA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AJB/RMM MARINE...ALB/TMG