218 FXUS63 KDDC 160557 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1257 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Surface observations at 1730Z show temperatures have risen into the upper 60s/low 70s across southwest KS under full sunshine, and afternoon highs in the upper 70s/low 80s are expected. Later this evening, an upper level shortwave impulse, currently over eastern WY/MT as per water vapor satellite imagery, will dig southeast into the central plains/Midwest, forcing a cold front through our area. While this will be a dry frontal passage, it will mark the beginning of a cooling trend that will last through Tuesday of next week, as persistent north winds advect cooler temperatures equatorward, and widespread precipitation across the southern plains ahead of an upper level cut-off low cuts of any warm return flow. Given north winds in the 10-15 mph range overnight, along with increasing cloud cover especially over the southern half of our area, lows tonight will range from the low 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. During the day Sunday, surface high pressure will build into the central plains in the wake of the cold frontal passage, which will aid in clearing out mostly cloudy morning skies from north to south for most locations. However, the far western and southern zones will likely remain cloudy much of the day where synoptic scale ascent ahead of the aforementioned cut-off low is maximized. Northerly surface winds in the 10-20 mph range will foster temperatures much more characteristic of fall than Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The entirety of the long term period appears quiet across southwest KS, as the upper level pattern at the beginning of the period will not change appreciably until Thursday, with a strong trough spinning over the eastern half other CONUS and a weak ridge west of the Rockies. Sunday night into Monday morning, nearly calm winds and clearing skies will result in a cold morning, as temperatures drop into the low 30s north to the upper 30s south. As a result, a Freeze Watch is being considered for at least Trego and Ellis counties, and potentially additional neighboring counties. Daytime Monday, clear skies and light winds will make for an absolutely gorgeous fall day, with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 60s. Monday night, radiational cooling will once again be optimized, and temperatures will bottom out into the upper 20s north to low 30s south. Freeze headlines will almost assuredly be needed, however will hold off for now. Tuesday will be another beautiful fall day, as surface high pressure maintains light winds and clear skies across southwest KS, and afternoon highs ranging from the low/mid 50s near central KS to the mid 60s along the KS/CO border are expected. One last morning near or below freezing is expected Wednesday, with more Freeze headlines likely on the way. Temperatures will finally begin to warm up during the day Wednesday, as surface high pressure slides into the southern plains/ArkLaTex region allowing winds to regain a southerly component. Both the latest ECMWF and GFS runs depict 850-mb temperatures increasing by at least 5-7C compared to Tuesday, resulting in afternoon highs in the 70s. Thursday will be very similar, despite the ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs as well as the EPS/GEFS ensembles suggesting the upper level pattern will finally begin to break down. As this happens, the upper level ridge out west is progged to translate eastward and dampen, and the increase in synoptic subsidence over the central plains will foster a fairly warm Friday, with highs in the 80s. By the end of the period, deterministic and ensemble runs of both the ECMWF and GFS indicate longwave troughing will begin to build over the western CONUS. This pattern change could promote precipitation chances beyond the long term scope, however predictability is low regardless of robust deterministic/ensemble support. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A surface ridge will slowly build into western Kansas today. This will result in a northeast wind become more northerly during the day on Sunday. The wind speeds will be at less than 10 knots overnight.These light winds will increase into the 10 to 15 knot range between 15z and 18z Sunday. BUFR soundings indicating an increase in moisture/clouds will occur mid day through early evening in the 4000 to 8000ft AGL level. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 45 68 33 63 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 44 67 32 64 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 45 64 37 65 / 10 20 10 0 LBL 47 67 35 65 / 10 10 10 0 HYS 45 67 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 P28 49 72 38 64 / 20 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for KSZ030- 031-043>045. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Burgert