537 FXUS65 KPUB 160553 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1153 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Key Messages: 1) Cool and cloudy Sunday for most, with precipitation along southern portions of Colorado. Tonight...During the short term period, a slight uptick in active weather is expected. Shorter range ensemble model guidance, such as the SREF and HREF, are in agreement about dropping a weak short wave trough southward overnight, with a closed low pushing to the north- northeast. Between these two features though, flow throughout the column will be rather amorphous as both start to influence the southern Colorado region. Given the messy flow, no real focused forcing is anticipated, and because of that, dry conditions are expected across the area. The exception to this will possibly be isolated rain and snow showers along prominent eastern terrain features, such as the Ramparts, the Wet Mountains and southern portion of the Sangre de Cristos, as weak easterly flow at 700 mb develops for a short period overnight. Also, cloud cover will expand in coverage overnight as synoptic forcing starts to increase from the wave and closed low. Looking at temperatures, despite a cold front dropping southward earlier Saturday, the uptick in clouds will limit radiational cooling and keep the overnight warmer than more recent nights this past week. The plains will cool into the low to mid 40s, the mountain valleys will drop into the 30s, and the mountains will fall into the 20s. Tomorrow... Heading into the last day of the weekend, a cool, cloudy, and wet (for some) day is expected. Ensemble guidance remains in agreement about the evolution of the short wave and closed low throughout the day Sunday. During the day, the weak short wave will continue to push southward while the closed low slowly moves to the north-northeast. As this take place, the two systems will interact and as this interaction takes place, the weak short wave will become sheared out across the more solidified closed low. This means the closed low will be the primary influence through the day, especially later in the day. However, with that said though, the southward push of the shortwave, along with northerly winds behind it, will stunt the lows speed and northward progression, and will become more of an eastward progression. With that though, an uptick in synoptic ascent is still expected during the day as the low slowly treks eastward just to the south in New Mexico. Given this, scattered rain and snow showers are anticipated along the mountains Sunday afternoon, but mostly along southern portions of Colorado, where better moisture has been pushed, such as the San Juan Mountains and southern parts of the San Luis Valley and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Otherwise across the southern Colorado region, most are expected to remain dry throughout the day. For all of the area, clouds will persist though the day, given forcing from the low and surface winds becoming more easterly across the plains, allowing for persistent surface upsloping. Given the expected overcast skies and the cold front from Saturday, a much cooler day is anticipated. Most across the region will be below seasonal values. The eastern plains will warm into the low to mid 60s, the mountain valleys will heat into the 50s, and the mountains will rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Key messages 1) Frost/freeze concerns for the plains mainly Monday and Tuesday. 2) Pattern change starts late in the week with increased fire weather concerns. .Monday and Tuesday...Upper low continues sliding south of the region on Monday. On the plains, the NBM has lows mostly in the mid 30s Monday morning with the 25 percentile being around freezing. Kiowa County has cooler temperatures with the 25th percentile for lows around 30. Will issue a freeze watch for Kiowa County with cooler temperatures. Suspect that a frost advisory may be needed for much of the plains Monday morning. Late Monday, a trough moves southward on the back side of the upper low over the Midwest. A weak cool front could move onto the plains with slightly cooler air. NBM is a couple of degrees cooler Tuesday morning so frost/freeze highlights may be needed. With the low moving south of the region, there will be some modest PoPs over portions of the southern mountains Sunday and and Monday, with any QPF being light. .Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge remains over the region as the deep trough over the Midwest moves eastward. Temperatures aloft warm and NBM minimums increase a few degrees on the plains. With dry airmass, strong radiational cooling may occur with some areas of frost possible and there could be some frost advisories for the plains. Daytime humidities will be low, but winds are forecast to be too light for fire weather concerns. .Friday and Saturday...Pattern change begins with a stronger trough moving into the Pacific northwest on Friday and moving southeast on Saturday. This far out, there are still timing and strength uncertainties. Westerly flow aloft increases with the potential for increased westerly surface winds. The stronger winds will bring an increased threat for critical fire weather conditions with the best chances on Saturday. PoP chances increase over the mountains Saturday with the NBM having the heavier snow for the Continental Divide region holding off until Sunday. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1153 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 KALS: Gusty gap flows will continue through portions of the early morning due to a cold front passage pushing through La Veta Pass. Low clouds are expected, but VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. VCSH develops by the early afternoon, but showers should remain over the mountains. KCOS and KPUB: Post frontal winds will bring low clouds to both KCOS and KPUB bringing the potential for MVFR conditions from the late morning through the evening. If a stronger surge of southeasterly winds develop, then the clouds will likely last longer and be lower. However, currently the period for MVFR conditions will be from 17z through around 03z. VFR conditions are expected to be the prevailing flight category, however. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for COZ095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...SKELLY