754 FXUS63 KGLD 160536 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1136 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Midwest. Both the trough and the ridge appear to have a closed center, indicating both these features will be quite slow advecting downstream. Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds over the Northern Plains between the ridge and the trough. At the surface a weak cold front had moved through the forecast area. Behind it winds had turned to the north. Tonight CAA will continue behind the front. However moisture advection will also occur. The gradually increasing dew points will help prevent lows from cooling quite as much as last night. In addition, the cloud cover currently to the north will move over the forecast area. This will also help prevent lows from cooling as much as if the sky were clear. Despite low falling into the mid 30s for the western half of the forecast area, confidence is not high enough for temperatures to be low enough for frost to occur. Therefore will not be issuing a frost advisory. However, frost is certainly likely in low lying areas. Sunday CAA will continue through the morning. The warming temperatures during the afternoon may overcome the weak CAA. However am expecting highs to be cooler than today. Northerly winds will be similar to today as a surface high moves through the Plains. Sunday night light winds will continue. Meanwhile a surface high pressure will move in from the north with another round of cooler air. The cooler air and lower dew points will allow lows to fall into the mid 20s and low 30s across the forecast area. However the lows over the northeast part of the forecast area may not be cool enough due to the dew points being in the 20s and also being closer to the surface high. Given the cooler temperatures coming in, have issued a freeze watch for the entire forecast area. These temperatures may be enough to officially end the growing season for part of the forecast area. Monday the surface high moves east of the forecast area during the afternoon. The cooler air will accompany the high pressure east, allowing weak WAA into the forecast area. Am thinking this will keep highs a few degrees warmer than if the surface high remained in the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Monday evening the upper-level low center previously over the southwestern U.S. enters the Texas Panhandle and moves southeastward, becoming incorporated into the back of the broad trough over the eastern CONUS. High pressure remains over the west as another low center is over the Pacific, offshore Southern California. Flow over our area begins to shift west-southwestward Thursday night into Friday as the ridge breaks down with the introduction of upper-level troughiness. With the drier air, minimum RH values dip into the low to mid- teens Wednesday onward. Currently looking at elevated fire weather conditions at best with winds not quite meeting criteria. High temperatures will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s on Tuesday, into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, then 70s to 80 degrees Friday and Saturday. Morning low temperatures will be in the mid-20s to low- 30s on Tuesday, followed by upper-20s to mid-30s on Wednesday, then mid-30s to low-40s Thursday through the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 VFR conditions will continue at MCK and GLD through the 06Z TAF period. Scattered to broken high clouds will clear out through the day Sunday. North to northwest winds will persist with some gusts over 20kts possible mainly at MCK between 18-21Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...LOCKHART