797 FXUS64 KLUB 160534 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight and tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches the CWA from the north and then sweeps south through West Texas. Water vapor imagery shows increasing moisture spreading into West Texas from New Mexico with PWAT values forecast to be in excess of 1.25" across much of the forecast area by tomorrow morning. Rain is expected to form in two general areas tonight; one in southeast New Mexico forming under a corridor of stronger upper level winds and the other along the approaching cold front in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. Forecast instability and wind shear parameters (1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE and 40 kt 0-6 km shear) indicate that a strong thunderstorm or two may be capable in convection in the northeast zone of the CWA. Hail up to quarter sized and wind gusts up to 60 mph may be possible in the strongest storms. The thermodynamic profile in the southwest of Lubbock is less favorable for organized convection and as such severe weather is not expected. After the passage of the cold front, strong deep-layer isentropic ascent will overtake the CWA and allow for continued precipitation through the end of Sunday afternoon. The entire forecast area is expected to receive measurable rainfall with the heaviest amounts in the southern areas. Maximum temperatures tomorrow have been adjusted down several degrees from NBM guidance due to the anticipated heavy precipitation and thick cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 By Sunday evening, the upper level low center is progged over SW New Mexico, continuing its slow eastward progression within a broader belt of strong quasi-zonal flow. Mid and upper level height gradients will rapidly tighten late Sunday night, with compact shortwave energy progged to eject over West Texas through the early morning hours on Monday. More vigorous shower development is expected overnight Sunday as upper level diffluence increases with the passage of a 90 kt upper jet streak. The greatest precip coverage is still expected over the SW South Plains and into the Permian Basin, but the broad nature and impressive magnitude of the upper jet forcing should allow for fairly widespread shower coverage late Sunday night. With strong forcing and efficient rainfall production, the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding does exist on Sunday night, especially across the SW South Plains where soil moisture levels remain elevated. We still currently expect only very localized instances of excessive rainfall accumulations, but southwestern zones near the TX/NM state line do have the potential for rainfall totals near 1.5" with generally less than 1" expected elsewhere. Upper level forcing will gradually diminish through the day on Monday as the upper low opens and absorbs into broader troughing to our east. The upper atmosphere will begin to dry as this occurs, but entrenched low/midlevel moisture and continued isentropic ascent will support scattered shower development across most of the area lasting through Monday evening. Cloud cover and robust easterly surface flow will also keep temperatures quite cool with most areas on the Caprock seeing highs in the 50s. Dry weather will return on Tuesday and persist through the rest of the work week as upper ridging builds to our west. This will also align with a warming trend, especially by Wednesday as surface flow regains a westerly component. Guidance diverges somewhat by late week, but with general consensus pointing to a return of deep western troughing and a return to southwest flow aloft and potentially unsettled weather by late next weekend. /DWK && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals throughout today. In general, CIGs will be on the edge of VFR/MVFR; however, there will be periods that CIGs fall into IFR criteria. Especially, if a shower moves near or over a terminal. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10