783 FXUS61 KOKX 160527 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 127 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the area tonight. Weak high pressure builds in for Sunday before a frontal system crosses the area late Sunday night into Monday. The associated parent low lingers back within the Great Lakes early to mid week. This low weakens and moves farther northward mid to late week, allowing for weak high pressure to build in from the south. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Region will be on SW edge of a large northern stream trough. Weak shortwave rotating through will bring some mid and high clouds overnight, otherwise dry conditions with a weak cold frontal passage tonight. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to mid 50s along the coast. Patchy ground fog possible for outlying areas with TDs in the 50s and some radiational cooling potential. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Weak high pressure returns for Sunday, resulting in a dry day. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. Chances of rain showers increase late Sunday night as a frontal system moves northeastward towards the region. Temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and upper 40s to mid 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cutoff mid and upper level low in the Great Lakes with associated surrounding longer wavelength trough will gradually weaken for midweek and move farther northward towards late in the week. Strong upper level jet pushes south to the west of the cutoff low for Monday and then intensifies to the east of the cutoff low over the local region Tuesday into Wednesday. The trough surrounding the upper low will be decreasing its wavelength and becoming more narrow. Main jet streak moves north and east of the local region Thursday into Friday next week. Main surrounding trough appears to get split in the model guidance during this timeframe. A weaker trough to the west may still be close enough to the region for next Saturday. There are model differences and greater uncertainty with this feature. At the surface, the parent low will slow down and bring an associated frontal system. There will be a warm frontal passage with a cold frontal passage following not too long afterwards Monday. The enhanced synoptic lift will bring a higher likelihood of rain showers, especially across eastern sections for Monday into Monday night. With an active upper jet and trough, another weak wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front, allowing rain showers to linger across eastern sections of the region late Monday night into early Tuesday. Rain showers are forecast to taper off later Tuesday for the afternoon. Dry conditions expected thereafter through the week. However, with the absence of any significant high pressure and low pressure lingering in the Great Lakes area, there will still be stratocumulus that develops with daytime heating and cold pool aloft. Wednesday, similarly, stratocumulus is expected to develop during the day with the cold pool aloft from that trough. This will also keep daytime temperatures cooler. The trough weakens with cutoff moving farther north Thursday and Friday next week. Less amplified flow aloft and less of a cold pool aloft will lead to less stratocumulus development. Temperatures forecast were lowered slightly from deterministic NBM for Monday through Thursday. The rain will keep temperatures cooler Monday and a colder than normal airmass with the trough and low pressure in the Great Lakes will encompass the area for that part of the long term. Lows for Tuesday night and Wednesday night mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with some low 30s potentially for some inland locations in the Lower Hudson Valley. Winds may stay up enough to mitigate frost development so no frost put in weather forecast just yet. Forecast shows this airmass to moderate late in the week into the start of next weekend with temperatures trending back towards normal. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front passes across the terminals early this morning before another weak high builds into the region into the afternoon. Another frontal system approaches tonight. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance for MVFR fog at KGON early this morning, but have left out of the TAF for now. Light winds to start will become light NW behind the cold front passage early this morning. A light N/NW flow after day break will back to the W in the afternoon. Wind speeds should remain below 10 kt. Winds become light and variable this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of winds shift to the W late this morning into the afternoon may be off by 1 to 2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday night-Monday night...MVFR conditions possible. Chance of showers late at night into Monday. Isolated thunderstorm possible east of NYC metros Monday night. MVFR conditions possible. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt each afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Marginal SCA ocean seas expected to drop below 5 ft late tonight. SCA conditions return for Monday thru early Tuesday but for Monday night and early Tuesday, the high SCA ocean seas are forecast to be mainly between Moriches Inlet and Montauk Point. Sub-SCA conditions then expected for all waters until Wednesday and Wednesday night when the ocean zones are forecast to reach SCA for both seas and wind gusts east of Fire Island Inlet. Sub- SCA conditions forecast for Thursday and Thursday night for all waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...20/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...DS MARINE...JM/NV HYDROLOGY...20/JM