762 FXUS62 KMFL 160526 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A pesky cold front remains draped across South Florida this evening and has triggered the development of scattered showers and storms that have mainly focused over Southwest Florida. Isolated activity was observed over the east coast this afternoon, but the strongest activity has been west. High-res models show a tapering of shower and thunderstorm coverage as the front progresses southward this evening. Tomorrow, dry air begins to filter across the area behind the front although a few isolated showers may be possible across the far southern portions of the CWA. No significant changes were made to the forecast in this update. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Showers and thunderstorm will continue to develop along a frontal boundary slowly sagging southward across South Florida. Slow-moving showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. The slow moving storms may lead to localized flooding concerns. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has placed the east coast under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Northeasterly winds will develop this afternoon and focus convection over the interior and west coast later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Modest lapse rates, 500mb temps around -7C and model soundings show shear values around 35 knots this afternoon. This may allow for a more organized strong storm to develop this afternoon. Best instability looks to be over the SW interior which should be the spot for the greatest diurnal heating today. Overnight and as we move into Sunday, the front will continue to move southward and wash out. This will allow a gradual drying trend from North to South. Precipitable water values will drop for Sunday with lower chances of showers and storms. However, enough lingering moisture to keep showers in the forecast mainly for southern portions of the peninsula. Sunday will be the drier day of the weekend. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be near climo with the temps in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 With the front washing out around the region, a slot of dry air and an area of high pressure will attempt to hold over portions of the peninsula briefly on Sunday night until the next boundary approaches from the north on Monday. Low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will have associated mid-level shortwave troughs moving eastward across the eastern two-thirds of the United States which will help propel cooler and drier air southward behind this next frontal boundary. As the front moves across the peninsula from Tuesday through Thursday, it could amplify the amount of convective activity across the area with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. Late Thursday into Friday, the front will clear into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas, allowing the cooler, drier air to reach into southern Florida. Aloft, a trough will develop over the southeastern United States which could eventually lead to some trailing wrap-around moisture clouds and possibly showers, mainly near the Atlantic waters, to close out the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions prevail at all area terminals early this morning as previous SHRA activity has diminished over the last several hours. L/V winds overnight before ENE winds pick up once again after sunrise. Mostly dry across the area today as any potential isolated SHRA should remain inland away from terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Northeasterly winds will persist across area waters through the weekend as high pressure builds to our north. Seas will also increase into the 3-5 ft range in the Atlantic with highest seas in the Gulf Stream. Winds and seas will gradually diminish early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible the remainder of the day. && .BEACHES... Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Increasing onshore flow will result in an elevated risk of rip currents at the east coast beaches this weekend. The rip current risk will begin to decrease early next week as onshore flow decreases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 76 88 75 / 30 10 40 20 West Kendall 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 86 74 87 73 / 30 10 40 20 Homestead 85 74 86 73 / 30 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 76 86 75 / 20 10 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 85 75 86 74 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 86 74 86 73 / 30 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 86 73 86 72 / 10 10 30 20 Boca Raton 86 74 87 73 / 20 10 40 20 Naples 88 72 86 73 / 20 10 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelly LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...Hadi