744 FXUS62 KTAE 160524 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 124 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 No updates to the forecast for tonight, mostly clear skies again lead to good radiational cooling. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Surface high pressure steadily shifts off the Atlantic in response to an eastward-advancing cold front from the Appalachians on Sunday. This pattern prompts initially east low-level flow to switch out of the south and southeast. There may be enough moisture and confluence to squeeze out a few low-topped offshore showers, some of which could move towards the Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds with an uptick in dew points supports an unseasonably warm day. For tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies will make for another decent radiational cooling night, but likely a touch more mild (mid to upper 50s). Daytime highs then surge into the upper 80s during peak heating hours. Isolated locations may even reach 90 degrees! && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Surface high pressure continues to bring dry, clear conditions with easterly flow to the CWA as it keeps moisture confined to the coastal regions while it continues to shift east. A slight wind shift toward southerly flow on Monday will allow moisture return to occur ahead of the cold front that will be entering the region in the long term. At the base of the trough, multiple shortwave perturbations exist and will serve to reinforce and deepen the trough, providing a source of lift for storms within the area. Some storms may be strong or briefly severe if they can become organized. While instability will be present, it will mostly remain off the coast as the inland PoP's continue to slightly diminish as the drier air advances into the area. Sunday night lows will reside within the low to mid 60's. On Monday, expect temperatures to reach daytime highs within the low to mid 80's and nighttime lows in the low to upper 50's with the temperatures decreasing farther inland. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 After the front pushes through Monday evening into Tuesday morning, strong CAA will occur causing our daytime temperatures to reach the mid 60's inland and struggling to pass the low 70's closer to the coastal regions. Radiational cooling coupled with a dry air profile across all levels will allow temperatures to plunge to the upper 30's and low 40's overnight. Similar conditions will be present Wednesday as CAA continues to push cold air into the CWA, with temperatures struggling to break out of the upper 60's. Subsequently, overnight lows will drop to the mid 30's and low 40's. Come Thursday, temperatures across the region will begin a gradual warming trend through the end of the long term as the week comes to a close. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some southerly return flow will begin off the Gulf this afternoon. Enough moisture will return at first to support higher-based fair weather cumulus. Confidence in fair weather cu is highest further west at ECP and DHN, and lowest further east at VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Through Sunday, easterly flow is expected before becoming onshore and switching to primarily southerly as the cold front enters the region. The cold front will continue to progress east on Monday, but will not fully pass over until Tuesday. Following frontal passage, strong northerly flow will exist across the coastal waters, possibly leading to cautionary and borderline advisory conditions throughout the remainder of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Warm and mostly dry weather continues tomorrow afternoon with min RH values ranging from the low 30s to upper 20s mainly north of I-10. Light winds also maintain low dispersions areawide. Noticeable moisture recovery occurs on Monday as flow turns southwesterly off the Gulf ahead of a cold front. Low-end rain chances accompany the front through Monday night, but are mainly confined to the coast. Otherwise, increased sky cover should at least provide shading of fuels in addition to lower temperatures. After frontal passage on Tuesday, breezy north flow ushers in a very dry airmass that prompts min RH to plummet into the mid 20s primarily north of the FL border. Pockets of high dispersions are also possible. These conditions introduce elevated fire danger. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Currently, there are no flooding concerns as the only rain potential over the next several days is Monday evening into Tuesday from a cold front. After the front passes through, dry conditions are expected and concern for flooding remains low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 62 84 58 / 0 0 20 10 Panama City 84 67 82 57 / 10 10 30 10 Dothan 86 62 83 51 / 10 10 20 10 Albany 88 62 83 53 / 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 88 61 85 56 / 0 0 20 10 Cross City 89 64 85 63 / 0 0 20 30 Apalachicola 84 68 82 61 / 0 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...Worster