806 FXUS64 KSHV 160514 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1214 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A frontal boundary remains stalled near or along the Interstate 30 corridor in Oklahoma and Arkansas. This has helped keep all of the convection well north of our forecast area so far. However, thunderstorms ongoing in Central Oklahoma are expected to continue to develop and eventually congeal into a more of a linear complex as a shortwave moves begins to move east-southeast across the Plains during the early morning hours. This should help move the convection and the front southwards towards our area. The storms will likely begin to affect Southeast Oklahoma during the early morning hours. A couple of severe storms will still be possible, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. However, instability should continue to diminish, and the risk of severe weather is expected to end by sunrise. With the convection not expected to reach the area for several more hours, PoPs were trimmed and removed from the forecast through 06z tonight. The remainder of the forecast appears on track. CN && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Despite the low level moisture return with the SSWrly low level flow, the afternoon cu field remains scant at best, with the cu confined to portions of E TX into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR. This should remain the case through the remainder of the afternoon before diminishing around/shortly after sunset, with the exception of the growing cu field over Ern OK into Cntrl AR along and just S of a stationary front. The short term progs and the majority of the CAMs continue to suggest isolated to scattered convection development here shortly along the front, as weak perturbations in the WNW flow beneath the broad troughing regime extending from the Plains into the MS/OH Vallies enhance large scale ascent near the front. Steep low to mid level lapse rates are in place atop moderately strong SBCapes, as compressional warming has contributed to temps climbing into the lower 90s just S of the front. However, the cu field remains slightly elevated as this area remains on the fringe of the deepening low level moisture, with the expectation that convection will continue increasing through the evening along this lead shortwave. Given the ample instability and adequate shear present across this area, strong to severe convection will be possible late this afternoon through the evening before the instability gradually wanes with the loss of heating. Given the relatively flat cu field in place across extreme SE OK attm, and still well away from the front, believe the severe threat here will be minimal this evening, as we await for additional development to occur along the front farther W into Cntrl and Srn OK where additional large scale forcing develops along an increasingly difluent region within the split upper jet regime. Did maintain slight chance pops this evening for SE OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR, before ramping pops up to categorical for the far NW zones after 06Z, tapering to chance pops farther SE closer to the I-30 corridor. Although the progs all suggest that this developing MCS will remain organized as it sinks SE into SE OK/extreme N TX and Wrn AR late, weakening instability and a quickly veering low level flow will promote a weakening trend in this convection late, especially as it encounters a more drier air mass as it approaches E TX/N LA after daybreak Sunday. Unfortunately, QPF amounts look to remain light from Deep E TX into N LA, given the drier environment and lack of forcing as much of the stronger shortwave energy is absorbed into the mean longwave trough bisecting the CONUS. Highest confidence with measurable rainfall remains over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR Sunday, with low chance/slight chance pops persisting over Deep E TX/NW LA. The associated cold front will take its time to shift S through the area Sunday, and did not stray far from the NBM max temps, as a large range in temps is expected from NW to SE given the cooler range shield that will linger of the NW half of the region. Scattered embedded convection should linger along/just S of the attendant H850 trough Sunday night especially along and S of the I-20 corridor, before a larger wedge of drier air begins to spill S into the region during the day Monday. Did keep chance pops going over much of the area Sunday night but again, QPF amounts look to remain light, generally below a quarter inch. Cold advection will begin to deepen Sunday night N of I-20, setting the stage for the coolest temps so far this Fall season for early and mid week. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south of I-20 early on Monday and shift southward, lingering in parts of deep east Texas in the early and mid afternoon. All of the precipitation will be ending there well before sunset. Rain totals add up on the WPC days 2 and 3 to include some 1 to 2 inch amounts north of our I-30 corridor with tenth to half inch amounts most everywhere else. High temps will vary with CCA timing, but end up in the mid 60s north to lower 70s south. Meanwhile, the core of a 1035mb cold air mass will be sliding out of Canada and right down the MS River valley and remain in our area into midweek. Skies will be clearing out overnight and our temps will see a range of mostly 40s to greet early risers on Tuesday. The winds will be brisk out of the N/NE all day and again to some extend for Wednesday. However, we do look to see calm down below 5 mph late Tuesday and perhaps near calm for daybreak. It will be quite chilly for late October with the freezing line dipping a toe in our waters over S AR and maybe parts of NE LA with other locales in the low to mid and upper 30s. The core of the air mass will be 1028mb on GFS and 1029mb on ECMWF, both positioned right over E OK. After this timeframe, we will see a warming trend as that air mass slides SE and modifies in our area for late work week. We will be looking at a couple of frosty mornings for much of the area Wednesday and again on Thursday. Low and highs rebound into the 50s for lows and 80s for highs as our winds on the backside of the air mass will be S/SW for the weekend. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 For the 16/06z TAFs...Radar imagery for the moment remains quiet across our region and for all terminals. In addition, satellite imagery remains fairly quiet across the region as well, with mostly clear skies being seen across most of the area. An approaching frontal boundary will gradually push into the region and bring some MVFR conditions along with some VCTS and -SHRA across most of the region by around 16/12z. Right now I have mention of at least VCTS for most terminals around or after 16/12z. Look for improving conditions for most terminals during the end of this TAF period. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 83 62 70 47 / 30 40 20 0 MLU 84 62 73 43 / 10 30 20 0 DEQ 71 54 71 38 / 90 20 10 0 TXK 73 59 71 42 / 70 30 10 0 ELD 78 58 69 38 / 40 30 10 0 TYR 82 62 69 46 / 60 50 30 0 GGG 82 61 70 45 / 50 50 30 0 LFK 88 64 72 49 / 20 50 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...33